One of the most exciting weekends in sports begins Saturday afternoon with NFL Wild Card Weekend. While Green Bay, San Francisco, New England, and Baltimore will be watching and resting up for the Divisional round, it becomes a win or go home scenario for eight other teams. Here is a breakdown and analysis of each wild card game, accompanied with my prediction.
Cincinnati at Houston, Saturday 4:30ET NBC
This game may have significantly less intrigue than the three others, but that doesn't mean it is not important especially for the Houston Texans, who enter the postseason for the first time in franchise history. The Bengals return to the postseason for the third time in six years, but this time not with Carson Palmer under center. Relient Stadium should be rocking for the playoffs, which gives a distinct edge to the Texans on their home field. Both defenses rank among the top in the NFL, which tells me this will be a low scoring game. Connor Barwin has had a great year with 11.5 sacks filling in for Mario Williams at the 3-4 OLB position. Former Bengal Jonathan Joseph has shut his half of the field down all year and may have been the most valuable free agent signing in the offseason-shortened lockout. On the other side, the Bengals may have been the most surprising defense, but have had huge years from Rey Maugaluga at the inside backer position, along with defensive tackle Geno Atkins who had a Pro Bowl type year. Both defenses may be a wash, which tells me this game will be won by whoever makes a big play at the end on the offensive side of the ball. Rookie quarterbacks Andy Dalton and T.J. Yates step in to make their first postseason starts. The edge goes to Dalton based on more experience and a stronger arm. Look for both teams to pound it on the ground for most of the game and keep it out of their rookie quarterbacks' hands until a play is needed to be made. I will take the more experienced Dalton in that situation, as I expect him to throw a late touchdown pass to stud rookie receiver A.J. Green to send the Bengals to New England. Final Score: Cincinnati 17, Houston 13
Detroit at New Orleans, Saturday 8:00ET NBC
This one has the potential to be a lot of fun. Both the Lions and the Saints like to score with the best of them, which could lead to some fireworks Saturday night at the SuperDome. The Lions last week were exposed by Green Bay Packers backup quarterback Matt Flynn in snowy conditions at Lambeau Field, giving up 480 yards passing and 6 touchdown passes. That makes it scary to think of the possibility of what Brees may do to the Lions in the SuperDome, where he has been deadly all year. This year Brees is 8-0 at home, which propelled him to setting the NFL single season passing yard record with one game still left in the regular season. The only way Detroit may have a chance of containing Brees is if their defensive line can get to him. In the teams' meeting on Sunday Night Football on December 4th, the two best defensive linemen on the Lions, Ndamukong Suh and Cliff Avril were both inactive. The Lions hung with the Saints and trailed only by 7 entering the 4th quarter, only to lose by 14 in the end. However, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford may be emerging as one of the best in the game, after throwing for 5.000 yards passing this season. He and stud wideout Calvin Johnson are going to need a game like last week (where Johnson had 11 catches for 244 yards) in order to keep up with the Saints. Look for the Saints to cover Johnson with their best corner Jabrari Greer, and also shadow him with a safety over the top like Roman Harper. In the end I expect Stafford to throw a few interceptions as he is prone to doing, and that being the difference. Darren Sproles should also be a huge difference maker, as no one has figured out how to cover him yet this season. Final Score: New Orleans 38, Detroit 28.
Atlanta at New York Giants, Sunday 1:00ET FOX
This is a great matchup as both teams enter the postseason with a little bit of momentum. The Giants recently knocked the Cowboys out of the playoffs, one week after pretty much eliminating their cross town rival, the New York Jets from playoff contention. One week after being destroyed by the Saints in New Orleans, the Falcons cruised past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to earn the fvie seed and avoid heading back to the SuperDome in the Wild Card round. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is still trying to win his first playoff game as he is 0-2 in postseason play in his first three NFL seasons with losses to Arizona his rookie year, and Green Bay last year. A lot of the pressure is on Ryan in this game, as Matty Ice must get the monkey off his back and prove he can win big postseason games. Remember, Ryan was pegged as Michael Vick's replacement and has done a solid job, but Atlanta is constantly appearing to be a solid regular season team, only to always fall short in the playoffs. They took a huge risk in trading up to snag rookie wide receiver Julio Jones in the first round of last years draft, and failed to shorten up that defense, which has struggled tremendously at times this season. Look for Eli Manning and his offense to exploit the Falcons defense. Receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz appear to be the best one-two duo in the NFL, and Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs both appear to be healthy. If the good Eli shows up, which isn't always certain, I expect the Giants to win by a couple scores. However, the Falcons should stay in this game through Michael Turner. If Turner can pound the ball, keep the clock moving, and keep the ball out of Eli's hands, this one should go down to the wire. That is what I expect the Falcons gameplan to be. Yet, the Giants defensive line is the difference in this one. With Matthias Kiwinuka there to stuff the run, and Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Osi Umenyora all on the field at the same time rusing the passer, the Falcons offensive line could have protection issues. If the Giants are able to generate pressue on passing downs with those four, and allow the linebackers to drop back and help in coverage, it could be a tough day for Matt Ryan. Final Score: New York 24, Atlanta 21
Pittsburgh at Denver, Sunday 4:15ET CBS
Too many this game has the most intrigue, but it probably will end up being the most boring game of the four. Sure, Tim Tebow verses the mighty Steelers defense could draw huge ratings, but that doesn't mean it will be a pretty football game. It first appeared the Steelers would mow over whoever they faced out of the AFC West, especially considering Denver backed into the playoffs with a loss to Kansas City to finish the season at 8-8. However, the Steelers have many issues that have erupted over the past few weeks. Since the game will be played in Denver, starting safety Ryan Clark will be unable to play due to a sickle cell trait that is dangerous to play in with the high altitude of Denver. In the 3rd quarter of last weeks victory over the Cleveland Browns, starting running back Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL and was lost for postseason. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is hobbling on his sprained ankle, and center Maurkice Pouncey has been ruled out with an injury. Three valuable starters and an injured quarterback does not equal a recipe of success in getting through the playoffs. However, Pittsburgh still has Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and Lamar Woodley to anchor the defense. Mike Wallace, one of the NFL's bigggest deep threats, remains, and Antonio Brown has emerged to be a very reliable number two receiver. It should be enough to get by Denver, who seemingly can't do anything on offense as of late. Tim Tebow's miracle ride appears over, but that doesnt mean that the Broncos have no chance. Denver has the defense to also stop the Steelers, and a running game to make this a grind-it-out fest. Expect this to be a very low scoring game, with the Steelers making just enough plays on offense to advance to the divisonal round of the playoffs. Final score: Pittsburgh 16, Denver 10
