This is it. Super Bowl XLV is finally here and my beloved Green Bay Packers are in Dallas to play for the Lombardi Trophy. And who better to play in Dallas, then maybe the two most successful franchises in NFL history. The Green Bay Packers have won 12 NFL Championships-the most in NFL history. The Pittsburgh Steelers hoist the most Super Bowl Titles with 6. I don't know what I will do if we win or lose. I really haven't thought ahead of what I may do after the game because I am so pumped for 5:29 Sunday Night kickoff. I am one win away from seeing my favorite team (regardless of sport) win the Championship. And never before have I been this close to really remember it. Some great moments in my young sports life include Marquette's Final Four run when i was in 5th grade, The Bucks Eastern Conference Finals run when I was in 3rd grade, the Badgers Final Four run when I was in 1st grade, the Brewers Wild Card run when I was a junior in high school, and of course the Packers making the NFC Championship game when i was a sophomore in high school. Never however have I been this close, and as I said in my last post, it still hasn't hit me. Let's get into the analysis and prediction.
Reasons why I am optimistic about this matchup:
1) We are in a dome against the Steelers defense. This is kind of two different points combined into one, but two things are clear: the Packers offense is very explosive indoor and the Steelers have struggled in domes recently. We know the Packers were never really known as a dome team in the Favre years. That all changed when Rodgers took over as a starter and he has been simply lights out. In 12 career dome games, Rodgers numbers are absurd: 111.5 passer rating, a 68.8 completion percentage, 286.2 yards per game, and 31 total touchdowns vs. six interceptions. His two dome playoff games have been maybe two of the greatest playoff performances by a quarterback in recent memory- last year at Arizona and this year at Atlanta. The Packers receivers also tend to slip less and are more sure handed in the closed stadium setting. The Steelers have previously had struggles when teams try to spread them out like the Patriots and Saints did this season. The Steelers have also struggled in their last two games in domes- this season vs. the Saints where they lost 20-10, and last season just squeaking by the Lions at Ford Field. I also read that the Steelers on defense play better on grass, which makes sense since offenses are slower on their cuts. However, they are inside and both of their Super Bowl wins we know have come on grass.
2) The Steelers offensive line is in shambles. Especially if Maurkice Pouncey cannot play. Doug Legurskey struggled last week after Pouncey went down and BJ Raji should be able to take advantage whether it is Legurskey or Pouncey on one leg. The Steelers have one of the worst offensive lines in the league even with Pouncey, especially at the tackle position. Flozell Adams is among the league leaders in holding penalties and Jonathan Scott is a midseason replacement when starter Max Starks went down. I think Cullen Jenkins could be in a for a huge day pass rushing more than anyone else because most of the attention for the Steelers line will be on Clay Matthews on the other side. I really believe the Packers will get there, but once they get to Roethlisberger they will have to wrap him up and bring him down instead of letting him get away. The Packers sacked Roethlisberger 5 times last year, but still for the most part had trouble stopping Roethlisberger, who threw for 503 passing yards. This is more in part due to the struggling secondary at the time than the pass rush, but we still know that Roethlisberger may be the hardest quarterback to actually take down in the NFL.
The two biggest strengths of the Packers play into the Steeler's weaknesses, which I am really excited about. The Steelers have a problems protecting Roethlisberger and have not had recent success against spread teams, while the Packers have a very solid pass defense and rush, and a prime aerial attack.
3) The last reason I am optimistic you may not believe: Special teams. The Steelers have one of the worst kickoff coverage teams in the NFL. And remember, last year Mike Tomlin attempted a surprise onside kick on the Packers in the game last season. Now I don't expect Tomlin to do that again, but crazier things have happened. We saw that last year in the Saints-Colts Super Bowl where Payton opened up with an onside kick to start the second half. If the Packers defense can stifle the Steelers, I could see Tomlin potentially going into his trick bag on special teams to turn the tide. Masthay, as I said in my last post is turning into the best Packers punter since the Heintrich days and has been excellent directing his kicks towards the sideline and inside the 20. Brad Smith of the Jets returned the opening kick against the Steelers in the week 15 matchup, forcing Tomlin to call many squib kicks since that moment. Shaun Suisham is a journeyman kicker but is he really that much worse then Crosby, who has only made one clutch kick in his 4 year career? The kicking game is a wash, but the Packers may be able to win the field position battle through special teams if they are able to get a few effective returns and Masthay can continue to remain productive.
Reasons Why I am pessimistic about this matchup:
1) Ben Roethlisberger scares me more than any player on this Steelers team: more than Polamalu, Harrison, and Mendenhall. He just has a knack for coming up big in these types of games. I really feel the Packers will get to him, yet he always sometimes seems to get away. As I said eariler, he is the toughest quarterback to bring down in the league. He takes a lot of sacks, yet he is also probably the best quarterback I have seen at converting 3rd and 10 yards or longer. He does this because the opposing defensive line tends to drop back in coverage and only rush 3 or 4. Roethlisberger usually gets out of trouble, and can either scramble to his right to buy time or stick in the pocket and make and accurate throw downfield for a gain of 20 yards. I excpect the Steelers to convert a couple of 3rd and 12s if Capers chooses to rush 3 and drop everyone back in that scenario. Roethlisberge is vulnerable as he is prone to fumling and taking sacks, but he may be the best clutch quarterback in the game I can think of, and I will be very worried if he is driving the Steelers down for a chance to win the game at the ened.
2) Rashard Mendenhall is a huge key to this game. The Packers have the fastest secondary in the league and I believe they will contain Mike Wallace and the Steelers receiver for the most part. I think Pittsburgh knows that Rodgers is lethal indoors and will try to keep the ball out of his hands as much as they can. Thus, I think the Steelers offensive gameplan will be built around Rashard Mendenhall, who ean about as hard as I have seen a running back run in that AFC Championship game. If the Packers have a weakness on defense, it is stopping the run, and if Mendenhall can grind it out for 3 or 4 yards a carry (he is averaging 3.6 yards per carry in the playoffs) he could keep the clock moving and open up the Steelers offense.
3) The Steelers linebackers are the most feared 3-4 linebackers as a group maybe in the history of the NFL. James Harrison, a former defensive player of the year, will be coming hard off edge against 34 year old Chad Clifton, who may be forced to keep Harrison off Rodgers all by himself. Lamar Woodley, the other edge rush has a least one sack in his six playoff games played and will try and get around rookie Brian Bulaga, who I expect the Packers to give help to. Lawrence Timmons in the middle may be the best all around linebackers of the four and that is saying something. The other inside linebacker is Larry Foote, who is a very solid veteran and is a sure-fire tackler. The linebackers are going to be coming very hard after Rodgers and they're defensive gameplan is to obviously shake Rodgers up. I even wouldn't be surprised to see Harrison go helmet to helmet on Rodgers like he is known for doing (similar to what Peppers did in the NFC Title Game). Think about it: a $50,000 fine is pocket change for a Harrison and the benefit would be knocking Rodgers out of the game. The line is going to have one of their best games of the season protecting Rodgers, because if he is given the time he is needed, he should be able to pick apart a suspect Steelers secondary.
4. The Steelers have the experience. Ok, I know that experience may not mean as much as it is hyped to be (just ask the 1997 Packers and the 2007 New England Patriots- both losers to underdogs). However, the Steelers have been outplayed in both of their last two Super Bowls (Seattle and Arizona) and still came out with a W. They know how to win games in which they do not play their best, even if it is ugly. I think the Packers will outplay the Steelers, but will it be enough to win the game is my question.
The Steelers game reminds me exactly of the game leading up to the Falcons game for 3 reasons. One is the game is inside, which means the Rodgers-led passing attack could be an aerial assault on Sunday night, in a game that I really did not expect to be a blowout at all. Two is the Steelers have played a very weak schedule this season, much like Atlanta. They ended the season, with the Panthers and Browns to lock up the 2 seed. They also have only played one good half in both of their postseason games: the second half vs. the Ravens, and the first half vs. the Jets. And finally three, the Packers brought the snowstorm weather from Green Bay to Dallas. Is this an omen and a sign of things to come? We will see.
I am going to take the Steelers 30-27, with Roethlisberger leading a game winning drive to win the game at the end. If I am wrong, I will be the happiest person in the world. Only 30 hours until kickoff! I am so jacked up.
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