Thursday, April 28, 2011

NFL Draft Live Blog

Well, that takes us to the end of the first round. My second ruond mock will hopefully be up by tomorrow afternoon and I will also have a little shorter analysis of about every five picks or so. As for my final results, I had ten correct on my mock draft but eleven if you want to accept my Mark Ingram selection to the Saints at 24 (he was selected at 27). Goodnight everybody!

With the final selection of the first round, my Green Bay Packers select Derek Sherrod, an offensive tackle from Mississippi State. Is this a sexy or flashy pick? No. Do I love this pick? Yes. Sherrod is an athletic tackle and his strength is in the pass blocking game, which is exactly what the Packers like to do. 366 days ago, the Packers had pressing needs at both tackle slots with Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher getting old. Now, however, it looks like the Packers are set at tackle for the next decade after spending their last two first round picks on Bulaga and Sherod. Those of you that were calling for Bowers...why? Bowers is a great talent but there is a reason he fell out of the first round. He has major knee issues that teams are worried about. No doubt, he is a great talent, but can he maximize that talent on a bad knee? Also, Bowers in no way fits in a 3-4 defense. He is strictly a 4-3 defensive end rusher and would be worthless to the Packers opposite of Clay Matthews because he has never rushed standing up. He would be a little undersized at 280 to fit in as the 5-technique in the Packers defense and would not take up many blockers. Sherod is called by some scouts at the best all around offensive tackle in this draft because he has few weaknesses. According so Scott Wright on NFL Draft Countdown, Sherrod's few weaknesses are that he is not dominant in the run game and he lacks a killer instinct. However, this selection ensures that the Packers have their left tackle of the future and can keep Bulaga at right tackle, where he was very solid in his rookie season last year.

And the Steelers make a quick pick and select Cameron Heyward, another great pick for a 3-4 scheme. As a Packer fan, this is a blow because I was sure one of Heyward and Wilkerson would be there when the Packers picked. Good pick for Pittsburgh, but now it will be interesting to see what Green Bay does. Do they go offensive tackle with Derek Sherod or take a 3-4 OLB like Reed or Ayers? Here we go.

A good pick for the Jets this late in the first round. I am a huge fan of Wilkerson and really wanted to Packers to select him. Wilkerson is a perfect fit in a 3-4 scheme like the Jets and Rex Ryan will certainly be pleased.

And the Bears luck from last season still continues. Gabe Carimi somehow drops to the Bears where they have a major need at right tackle. They get the number 3 and 19th player on my board in the draft with the 29th pick in the first round. Carimi could instantly step in to protect Jay Cutler and play right away. Kind of a bummer as a Wisconsin fan to see Carimi going to the Bears.

The Saints appear set on taking Mark Ingram. As a Packer fan, I am ok with this. Would I have liked Ingram? Yes. Do we really need him? No. The Packers biggest need is on the interior and there are still many really good defensive lineman available for Thompson to select. I am also higher on James Starks than most people and Ryan Grant will also be back. I had Ingram mocked at 24 to the Saints so I partially got this one right. They really needed a running back as it appears Reggie Bush will not be back and they also revolved through Mike Bell, Julius Jones, Chris Ivory, and Pierre Thomas last year. Many of them got injured and none of them stood out. The Saints really gave up a lot however. The Patriots get richer again, where they aquire a first rounder next year and the Saints second rounder this year. However, this is a great first round for the Saints getting Cameron Jordan and Mark Ingram.

Great pick for the Ravens getting a top 15 talent towards the end of the first round. Smith has a lot of character issues but they Ravens really need a corner back and are the kind of team with strong leadership that will shape Smith up. You think Ray Lewis is going to allow this kid act like an idiot? Great value for the Ravens. Now a trade by the Patriots to the Saints.

So it looks like the Ravens passed on their pick allowing the Chiefs to jump in front of them. Well, we dont see that one every day. So the Chiefs have the 26th pick and the 27th pick goes to the Ravens it appears. The Chiefs select Jonathan Baldwin, the wide receiver from Pittsburgh. Is it a reach? Yes. But I like Baldwin and his size. He just has some immaturity issues, but that will come with time. The Chiefs need someone to prevent defenses from focusing entirely on Dwayne Bowe, so I have no problem with this pick although it may be a small reach. So now the Ravens on the clock?

A quick Packers update. I don't expect Ted Thompson to trade up like the Packers blogs are hoping for. There are many good players sitting on the draft board that would certainly fill a need for the Packers. If Ingram makes it past the Patriots, he could certainly be there when the Packers pick. Also, a good defensive lineman should make its way down to Green Bay like Bowers, Wilkerson, or Heyward. There are also some good defensive backs such as Jimmy Smith, Brandon Harris, and Aaron Williams. We may even see Thompson trade back and select tomorrow with so many good players still on the board.

So the Seahawks were trying to trade down and obviously couldn't find any takers. so they take their guy James Carpenter...who I have projected as a 3rd or 4th round pick. This in my opinion is the worst pick in the draft so far by a long shot. Carpenter is the 101st ranked prospect on my board and I felt the Seahawks could have gotten him in the 2nd round at the earliest. Also, you reach for a tackle with Carimi (a right tackle like Carpenter) or Sherrod on the board? Just a pick that makes no sense to me. Baltimore on the clock. I have Cameron Heyward mocked here but could they take the risk on Bowers?

A great pick for the Saints because not many people had Jordan dropping that far. Some mocks had him going as early as 10 to the Skins, so this is great value for the Saints considering defensive end was their biggest need. This is another A grade for me, as Jordan had a monster Senior Bowl where he proved to be unblockable. Seattle on the clock. Talk on the JS blog is that the Packers may trade up around here with Ingram still onthe board. The Seahawks have been rumored to be interested in trading down.

In a bit of a surprising move, the Eagles pass on a tackle and corner and take a 26 year old guard. No disrespect to Watkins, but I do not think this is the right pick for the Eagles. Dmitri Patterson is simply not starting corner caliber material for a team not far away from a Super Bowl. Also, Jason Peters is good on one side, but they have no right tackle. Winston Justice was completely dominated by Clay Matthews in the Wild Card game and Carimi projected to be a very solid right tackle. The Eagles did need a guard and will start right away, which doesn't make it a horrible pick. However, corner and tackle were more desperate needs, which they need to address in the later rounds now. I would grade this a C-. The Saints on the clock...Mark Ingram or D'Quan Bowers are possibilites. I also can't believe Cameron Jordan is still on the board.

Well, Polian made the obvious pick and took Anthony Castonzo. The Colts dream scenario was for Castonzo to fall to 22, and that indeed happened. Castonzo was the 2nd best tackle on my board behind Tyron Smith. Not much need for analysis here other than it was a good pick for the Colts, who stupidly passed on Roger Saffold last year for Jerry Hughes. Philadelphia on the clock...this could be Carimi or my mock draft selection Jimmy Smith.

Trade Alert! The Browns have acquired the Chiefs 21st pick in the draft. And it looks like this pick will be Phil Taylor. I really think this is a reach, especially trading back into the first round for him. I felt the Browns could have waited a few more spots instead of trading all the way up the 21. Taylor will replace Shaun Rodgers in the 3-4 defense for Cleveland, but I am still not as impressed with him as a prospect. He had a dominant Senior Bowl, but he still has large stamina issues and he takes plays off. Not my favorite pick of the first round here by Mike Holmgren after a good trade made earlier tonight. I fully expect this next pick by the Colts to be Castonzo.

And no, the Bucs do not select Da'Quan Bowers or Cameron Jordan, but instead go off what many reports were saying. Many reports last week said Clayborn is high on the Bucs draft board and that statement looks like it was true. After a monster junior year where he was considered a top ten pick, Clayborn had an up and down senior year causing his stock to drop a bit. However, being the 20th pick in the draft is no small feat either. Tampa was obviously going defensive end with this pick, and they obviously felt concenred about the knee injury of Bowers or that Jordan did not fit the system. A solid pick for the Bucs, except I only felt it was a little high.

If I had to grade the first round so far, I would give the Giants an A. Not many people predicted Prince Amukumra falling this far, but the Giants were certainly happy. Amukumara is the second best corner in this draft and the 8th rated prospect on my big board so to get him at 19 is a steal. Terrell Thomas and Corey Webster are nothing special and even Aaron Ross struggled a little last year. The Giants had many games last year where they gave up big passing games (aka Aaron Rodgers) so this is definitely a great pick and a need. The Bucs on the clock...is this Bowers territory?

Well, I would like to personally thank ESPN for breaking the news early again and showing us Corey Liuget celebrating. Liguet helps bolster a defensive line that is probably the biggest question mark for the Chargers entering next season. Between Liguet and Cameron Jordan, the Chargers had some good options available to them. A need at good value for the Chargers works out well for them. The Giants up next, who I have mocked Anthony Costanzo to.

Wow, that was a surprise. Solder being the 2nd tackle selected in this draft is a big surprise to me especially considering how interested I heard the Pats were in Cameron Jordan. Solder was the 5th rated tackle in my board, as I was not impressed with his footwork and he plays high. The former converted tight end is still really raw and had a rough Senior Bowl on top of that. The Patriots needed help on their offensive line and a team like New England can also take a sort of project like Solder. Chargers on the clock.

Well, good thing I was wrong. The selection of Ryan Kerrigan to the Skins gives me my tenth pick right in 16 tries, definitely the best I have ever done thusfar. We still have half the first round left! Kerrigan makes sense, as it looked like the Skins were going defensive line. I just expected him this pick to be Jordan, as rumors were that the Skins were very interested in him. However, I really like Kerrigan too, who I have ranked just one spot lower on my defensive end rankings. Good pick for the Redskins. I have Jordan going to the Patriots on my mock...let's see if I am right.

The Dolphins selection of Pouncey makes me 9/15 on my mock. My goal was getting 10 right for this draft, so I am one pick away. Of course, I probably just jynxed it. A decent pick for the Dolphins, but I am still convinced they should have went with Mallett here. I mocked Pouncey because I believed Sporano was going to take a lineman in a year where this may be his last with the Dolphins. However, Mike Pouncey is not better than his twin brother Maurkice who went 18th last year (and as soon as I type that, Mel Kiper says that exactly). I believe he is slightly overrated based on his brother's success, but its not a terrible pick. Just not a great one. Washington on the clock for the second time tonight. It will be interesting to see where they go. My prediction is Cameron Jordan.

The Rams make a little bit of a surprising pick taking Robert Quinn. However, they had a large need on the defensive line. I just expected to go them interior with Liuget instead of at the end. Quinn is a freak athlete, probably the best among defensive ends in this draft. Quinn could have been the top pick in this draft with Andrew Luck staying had he not been suspended for dealing with an agent. The Rams get very good value here at pick 14 as Quinn will team up opposite Chris Long. They will still need to get some help at defensive tackle in the later rounds. The Dolphins on the clock.

And the Detroit defensive line becomes even better. Nick Fairley, the third best player on my board goes to Detroit a year after the selection of Ndamukong Suh. Detroit now has one of the top defensive lines in football, which is a scary thoguht as a Packer fan considering their offensive line was completely dominated by the Lions in that game in Detroit last December. The Lions really didn't have a need a defensive tackle, but he was the top player on the board so it made sense for Detroit. Vanden Bosch and Suh with Fairley is a scary thought. One pick after a laugher, this pick makes me worried as a Packer fan. St. Louis next.

Well, it looks like the Vikings could not trade back. And they make a major reach for Christian Ponder. Look, I like Ponder, but 12th overall? Minnesota really was despereate for a quarterback and they showed it by reaching here. I had Ponder as a 2nd to 3rd round grade and he goes 12th? I am just in shock and am also laughing at the same time as all Vikings fans around me are still cursing. I liked Mallett and Dalton much better than Ponder, who just looked terrible in his bowl game against South Carolina. He had a great Senior Bowl to bring his stock back up, but I will say it again. Minnesota really reached here. Ponder is a good fit for the West Coast offense, but that is the only plus Minnesota has going for this pick.

The Houston Texans selecte my boy JJ Watt with the 11th overall pick. However, I feel like Amukumara would have been the better pick as Houston's pass defense was absolutely attrocious. Watt will still definitely help the pass defense with his pass rushing skills, so its still a good pick. Watt was a complete stud this year with my Wisconsin Badgers and he is definitely a good fit in Houston, where they need a 5-technique opposite of Mario Williams. Watt has the best motor in this draft and I will never forget the Northwestern game I went to this year at Camp Randall where he had 2 forced fumbles and a pick in the same game. Good but not a great pick for Houston and good luck JJ. We will miss you at Wisconsin. My nemesis the Vikings are on the clock. Is this an option for Nick Fairley?

Well, the Redskins and Mike Shanahan obviously did not like Blaine Gabbert and have traded the 10th pick in the draft to the Jaguars. The Jaguars instead take Gabbert with the 10th pick in the draft, which makes me very happy. I definitely agree with this decision as opposed to what some of you may think. Gabbert is the best quarterback in the draft and I have never been a big David Garrard fan. The Jaguars can start Garrard and let Gabbert ease into the offense until he is ready. Best of all, the Vikings will not be getting Gabbert. This rounds out the first round for me and makes me 8/10. Houston on the clock...is this Prince Amukumara territory?


Props to you Jerry Jones. I've had Tryon Smith as my top tackle before he people started putting him up in this range and Jones made me look good. Smith is a superior athlete from the tackle position and will definitely help keep Tony Romo upright. I thought Jones may lean towards Amukumara, but he made the right decision in this case. There is a lot of depth at corner in this draft that they can get later. Washington on the clock...please let the rumors be true and take Gabbert.

And the Titans love for Jake Locker was not a secret. This makes me 7/8, but I assumed Gabbert was going to the 49ers. To select Locker over Gabbert is really telling and says that the Titans were really set on taking Locker regardless of whoever was there. I have said it before and will say it again. I have Locker as a 2nd round grade as I have not been impressed with him in his college days. Locker definitely is dangerous and has a cannon and some athletic ability and definitely fills a need for the Titans. Locker has a lot of accuracy issues and had only a 54% completion percentage in his career. And I LOVE how Gruden is saying this guy is a winner when Washington was about .500 every seasin with Locker. I feel Gabbert will be the better player, and now I am getting nervous that he may fall to the Vikings at 12. Come on Washington!

Aldon Smith is the first semi "reach" of this draft. Smith definitely has the ability and has unbelievable speed for a defensive end. However, I feel like the 49ers could have definitely traded back a few spots here for a team that needed a quarterback and wanted Blaine Gabbert. The earliest I saw Smith going was 11 to the Texans. This tells me that Gabbert or Locker could slide a bit now. Titans already with the pick in!


Wow, what a move by the Falcons. They trade up for the clear cut second best receiver in this draft and will have Jones on the other side of Roddy White. This makes Atlanta significantly better and as a Packer fan, this makes me worried. It will be interesting to see how much Atlanta gave up in order to move up 21 spots in the first round. Luckily, I still had Julio Jones mocked number 6, so this makes me 6/6 to begin this draft. And the details for the trade were just released. Wow, Atlanta has to give up their number one, two, and fourth round picks in this draft in addition to their first and fourth next year. Julio Jones better be what Dmitrov imagined because five picks for one guy is really a risk, especially to move up 21 spots for a wide receiver. Now on the flipside, Jones and White with Turner at running back and Gonzalez at tight end should give Matt Ryan many weapons to work with and make the Falcons one of the top offenses in the league. That defense is still a question however, and I definitely remember Aaron Rodgers shredding that Falcons defense for 48 points in the Divisional round on a January Saturday night.


Thanks ESPN and Coleen Dominguez for breaking the news early. Anyway, great pick by the Cardinals! Peterson is without a doubt the top player in this draft and is going to be a complete stud in the NFL. He weights 220 pounds for a corner back and yet still runs a 4.3 40. Peterson still has some coverage issues and sometimes is slow to breaking to the ball but that is nitpicking and is his only small weakness. Peterson going to Arizona gives them one of the best corner tandems in the NFL paired up with Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie. And I will stop talking about how great Peterson is because our first trade just happened! Browns trade the 6th pick to Atlanta!


A.J. Green, the second overall player on my board goes with the 2nd overall pick. Green in my opinion is the best wide receiver to come out since Calvin Johnson in 2007 and its really not even close. Green is a freak athlete with freak hands and I have been following him since his freshman year at Georgia. He really single handedly kept Georgia in games this past season. Now, the question is what is next in Cincinnati? Is this selection enough to convince Carson Palmer to come back? Or will the Bengals trade back into the first round and select Andy Dalton or Christian Palmer? Arizona on the clock with Patrick Peterson still on the clock.

It looks like the reports were true that Marcell Dareus would not make it past the Bills. Dareus blew up at the combine and many moved him over Nick Fairley as the top defensive tackle in the NFL Draft. I believe that is false, but that is taking nothing away from Dareus. I just think Fairley is a better and dominant player. However, in this scenario, Dareus is a better fit in a 3-4 where he can be the nose tackle, whereas I see Fairely as making more of an impact as a 1 or 2 technique in a 4-3. Good pick by Buffalo. Cincinnati taking AJ Green next?

The Broncos do indeed select Von Miller with the second pick in the draft. I completely agree with Miller as a "rare explosive athlete." Before the season, Miller was a a projected late first round pick, and I was hoping Green Bay would have a chance at him to pair up with Matthews. However, as the year went on, it showed Miller was definitely going to be drafted at a higher range. After a monster Senior Bowl and NFL Combine, Miller shot up teams' draft boards and is now the second overall pick. Miller is so explosive off the edge and the comparisons to Derrick Thomas are legit. A 4.4 40 coming off the edge is indeed scary and it will be even scarier for teams playing Denver if Elvis Dumervil can remain healthy. Buffalo next on the clock.

Here we go. The Panthers are on the clock...and the pick is already in.

As expected, the Panthers go with Cam Newton with the first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft amongst many boos in Radio Music City Hall. Now, if I were the Panthers, I would have taken Patrick Peterson, but I definitely understand why they went this direction. As I said in my mock, Jimmy Claussen may not have had a fair shot in Carolina last year, but it just looks like he doesn't have it. Newton is a really high risk, but I felt like Carolina had to do this. He has a lot of potential and not many people are gifted with that size and athletic ability while also having a cannon for an arm. If I were Carolina, I wouldn't start him right away, but they may have no choice. Jimmy Claussen was that bad last season. On to Denver, where it looks like this pick will be Von Miller.


The NFL Draft is finally here! I will have my thoughts for every pick in the first round of the draft. Here is my final mock again right here to see how many I get right once the 32nd selection is made:

http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/user_mock_drafts.cfm?mock_id=23283

NFL Draft Player Rankings

Here is my top 100 Big Board for this draft and also my player rankings my position. Less than an hour away from the first pick! I am going to quickly get some food and then be back on here in front of ESPN for the start of the draft. Hope you can join me for the live blog.

Top 100 Prospects
1. Patrick Peterson
2. AJ Green
3. Nick Fairley
4. Marcell Dareus
5. Von Miller
6. Julio Jones
7. Robert Quinn
8. Prince Amukumara
9. Blaine Gabbert
10. JJ Watt
11. Aldon Smith
12. Cameron Jordan
13. Tyron Smith
14. Ryan Kerrigan
15. Da’Quan Bowers
16. Cam Newton
17. Anthony Costanzo
18. Mark Ingram
19. Gabe Carimi
20. Mike Pouncey
21. Corey Liuget
22. Jimmy Smith
23. Derek Sherrod
24. Akeem Ayers
25. Phil Taylor
26. Brandon Harris
27. Adrian Clayborn
28. Ryan Mallet
29. Cameron Heyward
30. Aaron Williams
31. Torrey Smith
32. Nate Solder
33. Justin Houston
34. Muhammed Wilkerson
35. Brooks Reed
36. Jonathan Baldwin
37. Marvin Austin
38. Danny Watkins
39. Jake Locker
40. Mikel Leshoure
41. Stephen Paea
42. Kyle Rudolph
43. Martez Wilson
44. Bruce Carter
45. Rahim Moore
46. Ras-I Dowling
47. Titus Young
48. Ben Ijalana
49. Sam Acho
50. Christian Ballard
51. Leonard Hankerson
52. Mason Foster
53. Randall Cobb
54. Christian Ponder
55. Jabaal Sheard
56. Andy Dalton
57. Lance Kendricks
58. Steve Wisniewski
59. Brandon Burton
60. Ryan Williams
61. Jerel Jerrnigan
62. Kelvin Sheppard
63. John Moffit
64. Quan Sturdivant
65. Drake Nevis
66. Rodney Hudson
67. Allen Bailey
68. Jurrell Casey
69. Colin Kaepernick
70. Shane Vereen
71. Quinton Carter
72. Greg Romeus
73. Curtis Brown
74. Johnny Patrick
75. Greg Jones
76. Kendrick Ellis
77. Orlando Franklin
78. DeAndre McDaniel
79. Vincent Brown
80. Akeem Dent
81. Marcus Cannon
82. Marcus Gilbert
83. Mark Herzlich
84. Dontay Moch
85. Tandon Doss
86. Nate Irving
87. Jarvis Jenkins
88. Luke Stocker
89. Ahmad Black
90. Austin Pettis
91. Ricky Stanzi
92. D.J. Williams
93. Davon House
94. Casey Matthews
95. DeMarco Murray
96. Chris Carter
97. Jalil Brown
98. Sione Fua
99. Daniel Thomas
100. Taiwan Jones


Quarterbacks
1. Blaine Gabbert- Missouri 1st
2. Cam Newton- Auburn 1st
3. Ryan Mallet- Arkansas 1st- 2nd
4. Jake Locker- Washington 2nd
5. Christian Ponder- Florida State 2nd- 3rd
6. Andy Dalton- TCU 2nd- 3rd
7. Colin Kaepernick- Nevada 3rd
8. Ricky Stanzi- Iowa 3rd
9. Nathan Enderle- Idaho 4th
10. Pat Devlin- Delaware 4th
11. Greg McElroy- Alabama 4th-5th
12. T.J. Yates- North Carolina 5th-6th
13. Tyrod Taylor- Virginia Tech 6th
14. Scott Tolzien- Wisconsin 7th
15. Taylor Potts- Texas Tech 7th
16. Jerod Johnson- Texas A&M 7th


Running Backs
1. Mark Ingram- Alabama 1st – 2nd
2. Mikel Leshoure- Illinois 2nd
3. Ryan Williams-Virginia Tech 2nd- 3rd
4. Shane Vereen- California 3rd
5. DeMarco Murray- Oklahoma 3rd-4th
6. Daniel Thomas- Kansas State 3rd-4th
7. Taiwan Jones- Eastern Washington 3rd – 4th
8. Jordan Todman- Connecticut 3rd-4th
9. Kendall Hunter- Oklahoma State 3rd-4th
10. Dion Lewis- Pittsburgh 4th
11. Steven Ridley- LSU 4th
12. Delone Carter- Syracuse 4th
13. Da’Rel Scott- Maryland 4th -5th
14. Derrick Locke- Kentucky 4th- 5th
15. Jacquizz Rodgers- Oregon State 5th
16. Noel Devine- West Virginia 5th
17. Darren Evans- Virginia Tech 5th – 6th
18. Bilal Powell- Louisville 6th
19. Graig Cooper- Miami 6th
20. Jamie Harper- Clemson 6th
21. Alex Green- Hawaii 6th
22. Anthony Allen- Georgia Tech 6th-7th
23. Roy Helu- Nebraska 7th
24. Evan Royster- Penn State 7th
25. Mario Fannin- Auburn 7th

Fullbacks
1. Anthony Sherman- Uconn 4th-5th
2. Charles Clay- Tulsa 5th
3. Stanley Havili-USC 5th
4. Owen Marecic- Stanford 5th
5. Henry Hyzonski- Pittsburgh 6th
6. Shaun Chapas- Georgia 7th

Wide Receivers
1. AJ Green- Georgia 1st
2. Julio Jones- Alabama 1st
3. Torrey Smith- Maryland 1st- 2nd
4. Jonathan Baldwin- Pittsburgh 1st-2nd
5. Titus Young- Boise State 2nd
6. Leonard Hankerson- Miami 2nd
7. Randall Cobb- Kentucky 2nd
8. Jerrel Jernigan- Troy 2nd – 3rd
9. Vincent Brown- San Diego State 3rd
10. Tandon Doss- Indiana 3rd
11. Austin Pettis- Boise State 3rd
12. Terrence Tolliver- LSU 3rd – 4th
13. Greg Little- North Carolina 4th
14. Edmond Gates- Abilene Christian 4th
15. Ronald Johnson-USC 4th
16. Dwayne Harris- East Carolina 4th-5th
17. Darvin Adams- Auburn 4th-5th
18. Kris Adams- UTEP 5th
19. Greg Salas- Hawaii 5th
20. Stephen Burton- West Texas A&M 5th-6th
21. Cecil Shorts- Mount Union 5th- 6th
22. Jeremy Kerley- TCU 5th -6th
23. DeAndre Brown- Southern Miss 6th
24. Dane Sanzenbacher- Ohio State 6th
25. Niles Paul- Nebraska 6th
26. Aldrick Robinson-SMU 6th -7th
27. Armon Binns- Cincinnati 6th -7th
28. Jeff Maehl- Oregon 7th
29. Denarius Moore- Tennessee 7th
30. Kris Durham- Georgia 7th

Tight Ends
1. Kyle Rudolph- Notre Dame 2nd
2. Lance Kendricks- Wisconsin 2nd-3rd
3. D.J. Williams- Arkansas 2nd-3rd
4. Luke Stocker- Tennessee 3rd
5. Virgil Green- Nevada 4th
6. Jordan Cameron- USC 4th
7. Julius Thomas- Portland State 4th – 5th
8. Lee Smith- Marshall 6th
9. Rob Housler- Florida Atlantic 6th
10. Zach Pianalto- North Carolina 6th
11. Weslye Saunders- South Carolina 7th


Tackles
1. Tyron Smith- USC 1st
2. Anthony Costanzo- Boston College 1st
3. Gabe Carimi- Wisconsin 1st
4. Derrick Sherrod- Miss St. 1st – 2nd
5. Nate Solder- Colorado 1st -2nd
6. Ben Ijalana- Villanova 2nd
7. Orlando Franklin- Miami 3rd
8. Marcus Gilbert- Florida 3rd
9. Lee Ziemba- Auburn 4th
10. Jah Reid- Central Florida 4th
11. James Brewer- Indiana 4th-5th
12. Joseph Barksdale- LSU 4th-5th
13. Jason Pinkston- Pittsburgh 4th- 5th
14. Chris Hairston- Clemson 5th
15. DeMarcus Love- Arkansas 5th-6th
16. Darius Morris- Temple 5th -6th
17. Derek Newton- Arkansas State 6th
18. Willie Smith- East Carolina 6th-7th
19. David Mims- Virginia Union 6th-7th

Guards
1. Mike Pouncey- Florida 1st
2. Danny Watkins- Baylor 1st-2nd
3. John Moffit- Wisconsin 2nd – 3rd
4. Rodney Hudson- Florida State 2nd-3rd
5. Marcus Cannon- TCU 3rd
6. James Carpenter- Alabama 3rd-4th
7. Clint Boling- Georgia 3rd-4th
8. Will Rackley- Lehigh 4th – 5th
9. Andrew Jackson- Fresno State 4th- 5th
10. Zach Hurd- Connecticut 5th
11. Steve Schilling- Michigan 5th -6th
12. Keith Williams- Nebraska 5th-6th
13. David Arken- Missouri State 6th
14. Justin Boeren- Ohio State 6th

Centers
1. Steve Wisniewski- Penn State 2nd – 3rd
2. Kris O’Dowd- USC 4th
3. Alex Linnenkohl- Oregon State 5th
4. Brandon Fusco- Slipper Rock 5th
5. Jake Kirkpatrick- TCU 5th-6th
6. Ryan Bartholomew- Syracuse 6th
7. Zane Taylor- Utah 6th
8. Kevin Kowalski-Toledo 6th -7th
9. Tim Barnes- Missouri 6th- 7th

Defensive Ends
1. Robert Quinn- North Carolina 1st
2. JJ Watt- Wisconsin 1st
3. Aldon Smith- Missouri 1st
4. Cameron Jordan- California 1st
5. Ryan Kerrigan- Purdue 1st
6. Da’Quan Bowers- Clemson 1st
7. Adrian Clayborn- Iowa 1st- 2nd
8. Cameron Heyward-Ohio State 1st -2nd
9. Brooks Reed- Arizona 1st-2nd
10. Sam Acho- Texas 2nd
11. Jabaal Sheard-Pittsburgh 2nd- 3rd
12. Allen Bailey- Miami 2nd- 3rd
13. Greg Romeus- Pittsburgh 3rd
14. Jeremy Beal- Oklahoma 4th
15. Cliff Matthews- South Carolina 4th
16. Pernell McPhee- Mississippi State 4th-5th
17. Ugo Chinasa- Oklahoma State 4th-5th
18. Ricky Elmore- Arizona 5th
19. Eddie Jones- Texas 5th
20. Markus Wright- Florida State 5th
21. Pierre Allen- Nebraska- 5th
22. Kenny Rowe- Oregon 5th-6th
23. Zane Parr- Virginia 6th
24. Ryan Winterswyk- Boise State 7th

Defensive Tackles
1. Nick Fairley- Auburn 1st
2. Marcel Dareus- Alabama 1st
3. Corey Liuget- Illinois 1st
4. Phil Taylor- Baylor 1st
5. Muhammed Wilkerson- Temple 1st-2nd
6. Marvin Austin- North Carolina 1st-2nd
7. Stephen Paea- Oregon State 2nd
8. Christian Ballard- Iowa 2nd
9. Drake Nevis- LSU 2nd-3rd
10. Jurrell Casey- USC 2nd-3rd
11. Kendrick Ellis- Hampton 3rd
12. Jarvis Jenkins- Clemson 3rd
13. Sione Fua- Standford 3rd-4th
14. Terrell McClain- South Florida 4th
15. Jerrell Powe- Mississippi 4th
16. Lawrence Guy- Arizona State 4th
17. Ian Williams- Notre Dame 4th- 5th
18. Sealver Siligi- Utah 4th-5th
19. Karl Kluh- Iowa 5th
20. Cedric Thornton- Southern Arkansas 5th
21. Brandon Blair- Oregon 5th-6th

Outside Linebackers
1. Von Miller- Texas A&M 1st
2. Akeem Ayers- UCLA 1st
3. Justin Houston- Georgia 1st – 2nd
4. Bruce Carter- North Carolina 2nd
5. Mason Foster- Washington 2nd
6. Mark Herzlich- Boston College 3rd
7. Dontay Moch- Nevada 3rd
8. Chris Carter- Fresno State 3rd-4th
9. Lawrence Wilson- Connecticut 3rd-4th
10. K.J. Wright- Mississippi State 4th
11. Thomas Keiser- Stanford 4th
12. Brian Rolle- Ohio State 4th-5th
13. Doug Hogue- Syracuse 5th
14. Wayne Daniels- TCU 5th – 6th
15. Adrian Moten- Maryland 6th
16. Mario Addison- Troy 6th
17. Jonas Mouton- Michigan 6th
18. Steven Friday- Virginia Tech 6th-7th
19. Brian Rolle- Ohio State 6th-7th
20. Jeremiah Hunter- Iowa 7th

Middle Linebackers
1. Martez Wilson- Illinois 2nd
2. Kelvin Sheppard- LSU 2nd-3rd
3. Quan Sturdivant- North Carolina 2nd – 3rd
4. Greg Jones- Michigan State 3rd
5. Akeem Dent- Georgia 3rd
6. Nate Irving- North Carolina State 3rd
7. Casey Matthews- Oregon 3rd-4th
8. Colin McCarthy- Miami 3rd-4th
9. Chris White- Mississippi State 4th
10. Ross Homan- Ohio State 4th- 5th
11. Alex Wujciak- Maryland 4th-5th
12. Bruce Miller- Central Florida 5th
13. Josh Byrnes- Auburn 6th
14. Mario Harvey- Marshall 6th
15. Orie Lemon- Oklahoma State 6th-7th
16. Mike Mohamed- California 6th – 7th
17. Nick Bellore- Central Michigan 7th



Cornerbacks
1. Patrick Peterson- LSU 1st
2. Prince Amukamara- Nebraska 1st
3. Jimmy Smith- Colorado 1st
4. Brandon Harris- Miami 1st- 2nd
5. Ras-I Dowling- Virginia 2nd
6. Brandon Burton- Utah 2nd -3rd
7. Curtis Brown- Texas 3rd
8. Johnny Patrick- Louisville 3rd
9. Davon House- New Mexico State 3rd-4th
10. Jalil Brown- Colorado 3rd-4th
11. Shareece Wright- USC 4th
12. Chimdi Chekwa- Ohio State 4th
13. Kendric Burney- North Carolina 4th
14. Brandon Hogan- West Virginia 4th
15. Curtis Marsh- Utah State 4th
16. Rashad Carmichael- Virginia Tech 4th-5th
17. DeMarcus Van Dyke- Miami 5th
18. Justin Rogers- Richmond 5th
19. Chris Rucker- Michigan State 5th
20. Josh Thomas- Buffalo 5th
21. Chykie Brown- Texas 5th
22. Buster Skrine- Chattanooga 5th-6th
23. Richard Sherman- Stanford 5th-6th
24. Cortez Allen- The Citadel 6th
25. Devon Torrence-Ohio State 6th
26. Mario Butler- Georgia Tech 6th-7th
27. Korey Lindsley- Southern Illinois 7th

Strong Safeties
1. DeAndre McDaniel- Clemson 3rd
2. Ahmad Black- Florida 3rd
3. Jeron Johnson- Boise State 4th- 5th
4. Shiloh Keo- Idaho 4th-5th
5. Joe Lefeged- Rutgers 5th
6. Chris Conte- California 5th- 6th
7. Jerrard Tarrant- Georgia Tech 5th – 6th
8. Da’Norris Searcy- North Carolina 6th


Free Safeties
1. Aaron Williams- Texas 1st- 2nd
2. Rahim Moore- UCLA 2nd
3. Quinton Carter- Oklahoma 2nd-3rd
4. Robert Sands- West Virginia 4th
5. Jaiquawn Jarrett- Temple 4th
6. Tyler Sash- Iowa 4th- 5th
7. Marcus Gilchrist- Clemson 5th
8. Deunta Williams- North Carolina 5th
9. Eric Hagg- Nebraska 6th
10. Chris Culliver- South Carolina 6th
11. Jermale Hines- Ohio State 6th-7th
12. Nate Williams- Washington 7th

3-4 OLB
1. Von Miller- Texas A&M
2. Robert Quinn- North Carolina
3. Aldon Smith- Missouri
4. Justin Houston- Georgia
5. Brooks Reed- Arizona
6. Akeem Ayers- UCLA
7. Sam Acho- Texas
8. Greg Romeus- Pittsburgh
9. Dontay Moch- Nevada
10. Chris Carter- Fresno State
11. Jeremy Beal- Oklahoma
12. Ugo Chinasa- Oklahoma State

Kickers
1. Alex Henerey- Nebraska 5th
2. Kai Forbath- UCLA 6th-7th
3. Josh Jasper- LSU 7th

Punters
1. Chas Henry- Florida 6th-7th
2. Ryan Donnahue- Iowa 7th
3. Reid Forest- Washington State 7th

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

NFL Updates for this Blog

Hello to all my followers again,

Just a few announcements. I will post my final player rankings and my top 100 big board sometime tomorrow afternoon a few hours before the draft starts.

Again, if you want to see my final mock draft, check the post below and click on the link.

I will also be having a live blog and will post my thoughts on each and every pick. On Friday, I will also have a live blog, giving my brief thoughts about every 5 picks or so on rounds 2 and 3. I will not have a live blog on Saturday for rounds 4-7 because I will most likely not be able to watch the draft. Instead, I will have team by team grades a week after the draft is over (cut me a break, I have finals next week). Hope you can follow the draft with me tomorrow. In the words of Bart Scott: CANT WAIT!

Final Mock Draft

Because this dumb blog will not let me copy and paste from Microsoft Word, I have posted my final mock draft on another website. That also sadly means I cannot post my pre-draft postional rankings and my big board but here at least is my mock. Enjoy!


http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/user_mock_drafts.cfm?mock_id=23283

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Pre-Combine Mock Draft

With the NFL Combine set to begin next week, I will give my first mock of the year for the 2011 NFL Draft. Enjoy...and also enjoy the fact that our Green Bay Packers our World Champions! :).

1. Carolina: Nick Fairley/DT Auburn
The best player in this draft goes to a team in need of a defensive tackle.

2. Denver: Da'Quan Bowers/ DE Clemson
Bowers is the most athletic defensive lineman to come out since Mario Williams.

3. Buffalo: Cam Newton/ QB Auburn
The Bills need someone to sell tickets and Fitzpatrick is not the answer.

4. Cincinnati: AJ Green/ WR Georgia
With OchoCinco and Owens both likely gone, this seems like a sure lock at this point.

5. Auburn: Von Miller/ LB Texas A&M
Joey Porter isn't getting any younger. Miller is a true speed rusher that will get to the quarterback.

6. Cleveland: Marcel Dareus/ DE Alabama
Dareus would be a great fit for a team moving to a 3-4.

7. San Francisco: Patrick Peterson/ CB LSU
The most talented player in this draft in my opinion is a steal at this point.

8. Tennessee: Blaine Gabbert/ QB Missouri
I have questions about Gabbert, but the fact is the Titans desperately need a quarterback.

9. Dallas: Prince Amukumara/ CB Nebraska
Michael Jenkins was exposed this season and Terrence Newman isn't getting any younger.

10. Washington: Julio Jones/ WR Nebraska
Really torn between Jones and Robert Quinn here. We'll see this plays out.

11. Houston: Aldon Smith/ DE Missouri
Houston is switching to the 3-4 and will need a pass rusher.

12. Minnesota: Robert Quinn/ DE North Carolina
It will be interesting to see how Quinn works out next week after a year off from football.

13. Detroit: Nate Solder/ T Colorado
The Lions need a franchise left tackle. Solder and Cherilous will solidify the two tackle positions.

14. St. Louis: Corey Liuget/ DT Illinois
The Rams struggled stopping the run up the middle this year.

15. MiamiL Mark Ingram/RB Alabama
This is a slam dunk in my opinion.

16. Jacksonville: Ryan Kerrigan/ DE Purdue
Its rumored Jacksonville really like Kerrigan who is a high character guy.

17. New England: Cameron Jordan/ DE California
New England's biggest need is a 3-4 DE, so this is a perfect fit.

18. San Diego: JJ Watt/ DE Wisconsin
Let the run on defensive ends continue. San Diego would be eccstatic if Watt fell here.

19. New York Giants: Tyron Smith/ T USC
The Giants don't have many glaring holes, but a tackle would be an upgrade.

20. Tampa Bay: Adrian Clayborn/ DE Iowa
The Bucs defensive ends were attrocious last season.

21. Kansas City: Phil Taylor/ DT
A strong senior bowl has him flying up the draft boards.

22. Indianapolis: Anthony Costanzo/ T Boston College
I have Carimi rated higher, but Costanzo projects as a left tackle which is what the Colts need.

23. Philadelphia: Gabe Carimi/ T Wisconsin
See Wintston Justice getting abused by Clay Matthews in the Wild Card game.

24. New Orleans: Akeem Ayers/ LB UCLA
The Saints look set on offense so expect this pick to be defense.

25. Seattle: Jimmy Smith/ CB Colorado
Another prospect shooting up draft boards. With a strong combine, he could continue to do just that.

26. Baltimore: Brandon Harris/ CB Miami
Baltimore loves playmakers from the U. Here is another.

27. Atlanta: Titus Young/WR Boise State
Surprise! Atlanta needs a receiver with wheels that can stretch the field.

28. New England: Torry Smith/ WR Maryland
New England needs a deep threat to replace Randy Moss.

29. Chicago: Mike Pouncey/ G Florida
Pouncey falls right into Chicago's lap who is in desperate need of a left guard.

30. New York Jets: Justin Houston/ OLB Georgia
It is obvious the Jets still need help rushing the passer and Houston fits that mold.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cameron Heyward/ DE Ohio State
The value of Heyward here is too good for the Steelers to pass up.

32. Green Bay Packers: Derrick Sherrod/ T Mississippi State
We never know what Ted Thompson does but we do know that if a player slips, he will grab him. Sherrod is a first round talent at tackle and would be able to fill in when Clifton retires. I am sure Ted Thompson is hoping for Justin Houston to fall here as he may be an instant starter oppositve of Matthews. Another possibility is Texas cornerback Aaron Williams.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Super Bowl Champions!

Finally! That is the word that first pops into my head. I have finally witnessed one of my teams win a championship (that I can remember watching) and who better than the team I love most of all: the Green Bay Packers. And what a feeling it really is. When Roethlisberger's pass hit the turf and there was no yellow on the field, I leaped out of my seat and shouted YES!! and hugged the first person of many that I could get my arms around at my Packer party. I couldn't take it anymore. After a couple minutes of celebrating I locked myself in the bathroom and teared up, while telling myself repeatedly, "We are Super Bowl Champions. Thank You!" It was the greatest moment of my sporting fandom career and I have a hard time believing that feeling will be surpassed. Think about it: With all the injuries that the Packers suffered, and then just sneaking into the playoffs by the slightest margins. Then, they won three straight road games against the top 3 teams in the NFC in back to back to back weeks on their route to the Super Bowl. That time of adversity that the team overcame...I mean wow, it just doesn't get much better than that. I get goosebumps and a wide smile on my face just thinking about it. Now, when I look back on my blog in the future, I can remember the exact feeling that I had when the Packers had captured Super Bowl 45. Here are my thoughts of the greatest Packer game that I have witnessed as a fan:


1) Aaron Rodgers is unbelievable. I know I gave him high praise after the Falcons game, but I need to do so again. There is no better player in the NFL than Aaron Rodgers. That is right. I truly believe Rodgers is the best player in the league. Brady may have something to say about that, but he looked older in that Jets game. Peyton Manning, on the other hand, is actually old and may only have five years left in his tank. Manning did not have a great season this year, and I wouldn't think twice taking Rodgers over him. Brees was phenomonal last season, but he made some questionable decisions this season with the football that led to many interceptions. Face it. Quarterback is the most important position for a football team, and there is not better quarterback in football than Aaron Rodgers. He is only 27 years old and he has no glaring weaknesses. His accuracy allows him to make any throw on the field, which was demonstrated in that championship game. The third touchdown before half to Greg Jennings over the middle had me saying to myself, "How did he make that throw?" There were three guys in a very tight window and Ryan Clark was one inch from tipping that ball. The amount of velocity on that ball with the pinpoint accuracy makes that throw just about impossible to defend. Rodgers also has the best poise of any quarterback in the league, which I think many people tend to underrate. Rodgers looked very calm on the Packers final drive and made the biggest throw of his career on a 3rd and 10 pass to Greg Jennings that was fit right down the seam. It was superb coverage by Ike Taylor, but the throw was just better. It was just a normal day for Rodgers: He was better than everyone else on the field, earning Super Bowl MVP honors and a new slick convertible on top of that.


2) The biggest plays of the game. There are 2 huge plays that stand out in my mind, and I cannot decide which one was more important. The first play of the fourth quarter Rashard Mendenhall took a carry to the right side, where he was met by Clay Matthews and the deep penetration by Ryan Pickett. Matthews put a stick on Mendenhall, jarring the ball loose before being picked up by Desmond Bishop. That play stopped all the Steelers momentum that they had gained in a tough 3rd quarter for the Packers. Without that fumble, I have no doubt in my mind that the Steelers would drive down and score to take their first lead of the ball game. The Packers were once again able to take advantage of the Steelers' third turnover and turned it into a touchdown (they finished with 21 points off turnovers).


The Packers were pinned back at their only 25 yard line on 3rd and 10 with only 6 minutes left to play and needed a first down to take some more time off the clock, since the Steelers only had one timeout. Rodgers took the snap and found only a three man rush, giving him loads of time to find Jennings down the seam who had half a step on Ike Taylor. Taylor reached out and barely missed the ball, allowing Jennings to gain 32 yards and keep the clock moving. If the Packers do not convert there, they go 3 and out and give the ball right back to the Steelers, who would have all the momentum in the world. Sam Shields was done for the game after his last drive where Mike Wallace abused him. With the Steelers momentum, I would not have liked Pat Lee and Jarrett Bush out there while the Steelers had a chance to tie or take the lead late in the ball game. Remember, with only six minutes left, the Steelers probably would have had the ball around their own 35 and could have had a steady drive that took just enough time off the clock. A Steelers touchdown, and the Packers and Aaron Rodgers may not have had enough time to go all the way down and score a touchdown again, no matter how great Aaron was playing. Just something to think about.


3. I am so happy for Charles Woodson and Donald Driver. The two are veterans, warriors, leaders, and just tough football players. I feel awful that they could not finish the game, but they finally were able to get that ring that they were coveting their whole careers. Charles Woodson broke his collarbone, covering a deep route since he was forced to play out wide with the departure of Sam Shields. Driver was tackled by two Steelers defenders where his ankle got caught underneath and buckled. Neither went back in the game and were left in tears at the prospects of not returning. Woodson gave an emotional halftime speach that he could not finish because he was choked back by tears. His Packer teammates were extremely motivated and told the veteran that they would win it for him. After the Steelers scored on their first possession of the third quarter, Woodson approached his defensive teammates on the sideline and shouted at them, "Damnit, I thought you were going to do this for me!" FOX cameras captured a great shot (and no I'm not talking about A-Rod being fed by Cameron Diaz) when they saw Woodson celebrate Suisham's missed field goal and then wince in pain. That is the kind of leader Woodson is, and it really speaks volumes of what he means to this team. I really think he will be a future Hall of Famer now that he has the ring. He has a Defensive MVP, multiple Pro Bowls, and now that Super Bowl ring. And what is great is that he got the MVP and Super Bowl ring with Green Bay, meaning he will probably go in as a Green Bay Packer.

4. It was a long halftime for me. Man,and I thought watching Shields leave the game with a shoulder injury would be bad. It caused Charles Woodson to leave his corner/blitzing/slot hybrid and force him to play on the outside where he is much less dangerous. The Steelers went after him on the first play on a vertical route to Mike Wallace. Woodson outstretched for the ball and landed awkwardly on his arm, breaking his collarbone. Knowing how tough Woodson is, I thought it would only be a stinger. Yet, Fergie wasn't enough to distract me from the game at halftime. I kept thinking what if Woodson and Shields are actually unavailable to play the rest of the game? I kept having flashbacks of last season's game between these two teams where Roethlisberger threw for 503 passing yards against our beat up secondary with the likes of Jarrett Bush and Josh Bell. Now it was Bush and Lee along with Tramon Williams who seemed like the only healthy defensive back starter. Roethlisberger just drove down the field on the last drive of the first half with ease on that secondary, and sure enough score to cut the lead to 11 and give the Steelers momentum heading into halftime. It sure did not feel like an 11 point lead because I really fearing if Woodson and Shields would be back. Sure enough, Pam Oliver says Woodson broke his collar bone. Shields did return to the game but only played with one effecive arm, which wasn't enough to stop Mike Wallace from abusing him on his touchdown. Thankfully, the defense held together and I have to give my due to Bush and Pat Lee. The probably weren't expected the play much, but they held their own for the most part in the second half when they were in the game. Bush actually generated some decent pressure playing the Woodson blitzing role, and made Roethlisberger a little uncomfortable. Despit being burnt by Ward for a touchdown in the first half, Bush played his best game as a Green Bay Packer.

5) This video should explain it all. Again, tears to my eyes. After, I watched this video it finally hit me. As Jim Irwin would say, "WORLD CHAMPION, GREEN BAY PACKERS!"

With the season finally over, I will keep posting random football thoughts weekly whether that be about the Packers or the draft. The scouting combine is my next focus!

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Steelers vs. Packers- 2010 NFL Super Bowl

This is it. Super Bowl XLV is finally here and my beloved Green Bay Packers are in Dallas to play for the Lombardi Trophy. And who better to play in Dallas, then maybe the two most successful franchises in NFL history. The Green Bay Packers have won 12 NFL Championships-the most in NFL history. The Pittsburgh Steelers hoist the most Super Bowl Titles with 6. I don't know what I will do if we win or lose. I really haven't thought ahead of what I may do after the game because I am so pumped for 5:29 Sunday Night kickoff. I am one win away from seeing my favorite team (regardless of sport) win the Championship. And never before have I been this close to really remember it. Some great moments in my young sports life include Marquette's Final Four run when i was in 5th grade, The Bucks Eastern Conference Finals run when I was in 3rd grade, the Badgers Final Four run when I was in 1st grade, the Brewers Wild Card run when I was a junior in high school, and of course the Packers making the NFC Championship game when i was a sophomore in high school. Never however have I been this close, and as I said in my last post, it still hasn't hit me. Let's get into the analysis and prediction.





Reasons why I am optimistic about this matchup:
1) We are in a dome against the Steelers defense. This is kind of two different points combined into one, but two things are clear: the Packers offense is very explosive indoor and the Steelers have struggled in domes recently. We know the Packers were never really known as a dome team in the Favre years. That all changed when Rodgers took over as a starter and he has been simply lights out. In 12 career dome games, Rodgers numbers are absurd: 111.5 passer rating, a 68.8 completion percentage, 286.2 yards per game, and 31 total touchdowns vs. six interceptions. His two dome playoff games have been maybe two of the greatest playoff performances by a quarterback in recent memory- last year at Arizona and this year at Atlanta. The Packers receivers also tend to slip less and are more sure handed in the closed stadium setting. The Steelers have previously had struggles when teams try to spread them out like the Patriots and Saints did this season. The Steelers have also struggled in their last two games in domes- this season vs. the Saints where they lost 20-10, and last season just squeaking by the Lions at Ford Field. I also read that the Steelers on defense play better on grass, which makes sense since offenses are slower on their cuts. However, they are inside and both of their Super Bowl wins we know have come on grass.





2) The Steelers offensive line is in shambles. Especially if Maurkice Pouncey cannot play. Doug Legurskey struggled last week after Pouncey went down and BJ Raji should be able to take advantage whether it is Legurskey or Pouncey on one leg. The Steelers have one of the worst offensive lines in the league even with Pouncey, especially at the tackle position. Flozell Adams is among the league leaders in holding penalties and Jonathan Scott is a midseason replacement when starter Max Starks went down. I think Cullen Jenkins could be in a for a huge day pass rushing more than anyone else because most of the attention for the Steelers line will be on Clay Matthews on the other side. I really believe the Packers will get there, but once they get to Roethlisberger they will have to wrap him up and bring him down instead of letting him get away. The Packers sacked Roethlisberger 5 times last year, but still for the most part had trouble stopping Roethlisberger, who threw for 503 passing yards. This is more in part due to the struggling secondary at the time than the pass rush, but we still know that Roethlisberger may be the hardest quarterback to actually take down in the NFL.





The two biggest strengths of the Packers play into the Steeler's weaknesses, which I am really excited about. The Steelers have a problems protecting Roethlisberger and have not had recent success against spread teams, while the Packers have a very solid pass defense and rush, and a prime aerial attack.





3) The last reason I am optimistic you may not believe: Special teams. The Steelers have one of the worst kickoff coverage teams in the NFL. And remember, last year Mike Tomlin attempted a surprise onside kick on the Packers in the game last season. Now I don't expect Tomlin to do that again, but crazier things have happened. We saw that last year in the Saints-Colts Super Bowl where Payton opened up with an onside kick to start the second half. If the Packers defense can stifle the Steelers, I could see Tomlin potentially going into his trick bag on special teams to turn the tide. Masthay, as I said in my last post is turning into the best Packers punter since the Heintrich days and has been excellent directing his kicks towards the sideline and inside the 20. Brad Smith of the Jets returned the opening kick against the Steelers in the week 15 matchup, forcing Tomlin to call many squib kicks since that moment. Shaun Suisham is a journeyman kicker but is he really that much worse then Crosby, who has only made one clutch kick in his 4 year career? The kicking game is a wash, but the Packers may be able to win the field position battle through special teams if they are able to get a few effective returns and Masthay can continue to remain productive.

Reasons Why I am pessimistic about this matchup:
1) Ben Roethlisberger scares me more than any player on this Steelers team: more than Polamalu, Harrison, and Mendenhall. He just has a knack for coming up big in these types of games. I really feel the Packers will get to him, yet he always sometimes seems to get away. As I said eariler, he is the toughest quarterback to bring down in the league. He takes a lot of sacks, yet he is also probably the best quarterback I have seen at converting 3rd and 10 yards or longer. He does this because the opposing defensive line tends to drop back in coverage and only rush 3 or 4. Roethlisberger usually gets out of trouble, and can either scramble to his right to buy time or stick in the pocket and make and accurate throw downfield for a gain of 20 yards. I excpect the Steelers to convert a couple of 3rd and 12s if Capers chooses to rush 3 and drop everyone back in that scenario. Roethlisberge is vulnerable as he is prone to fumling and taking sacks, but he may be the best clutch quarterback in the game I can think of, and I will be very worried if he is driving the Steelers down for a chance to win the game at the ened.

2) Rashard Mendenhall is a huge key to this game. The Packers have the fastest secondary in the league and I believe they will contain Mike Wallace and the Steelers receiver for the most part. I think Pittsburgh knows that Rodgers is lethal indoors and will try to keep the ball out of his hands as much as they can. Thus, I think the Steelers offensive gameplan will be built around Rashard Mendenhall, who ean about as hard as I have seen a running back run in that AFC Championship game. If the Packers have a weakness on defense, it is stopping the run, and if Mendenhall can grind it out for 3 or 4 yards a carry (he is averaging 3.6 yards per carry in the playoffs) he could keep the clock moving and open up the Steelers offense.

3) The Steelers linebackers are the most feared 3-4 linebackers as a group maybe in the history of the NFL. James Harrison, a former defensive player of the year, will be coming hard off edge against 34 year old Chad Clifton, who may be forced to keep Harrison off Rodgers all by himself. Lamar Woodley, the other edge rush has a least one sack in his six playoff games played and will try and get around rookie Brian Bulaga, who I expect the Packers to give help to. Lawrence Timmons in the middle may be the best all around linebackers of the four and that is saying something. The other inside linebacker is Larry Foote, who is a very solid veteran and is a sure-fire tackler. The linebackers are going to be coming very hard after Rodgers and they're defensive gameplan is to obviously shake Rodgers up. I even wouldn't be surprised to see Harrison go helmet to helmet on Rodgers like he is known for doing (similar to what Peppers did in the NFC Title Game). Think about it: a $50,000 fine is pocket change for a Harrison and the benefit would be knocking Rodgers out of the game. The line is going to have one of their best games of the season protecting Rodgers, because if he is given the time he is needed, he should be able to pick apart a suspect Steelers secondary.

4. The Steelers have the experience. Ok, I know that experience may not mean as much as it is hyped to be (just ask the 1997 Packers and the 2007 New England Patriots- both losers to underdogs). However, the Steelers have been outplayed in both of their last two Super Bowls (Seattle and Arizona) and still came out with a W. They know how to win games in which they do not play their best, even if it is ugly. I think the Packers will outplay the Steelers, but will it be enough to win the game is my question.

The Steelers game reminds me exactly of the game leading up to the Falcons game for 3 reasons. One is the game is inside, which means the Rodgers-led passing attack could be an aerial assault on Sunday night, in a game that I really did not expect to be a blowout at all. Two is the Steelers have played a very weak schedule this season, much like Atlanta. They ended the season, with the Panthers and Browns to lock up the 2 seed. They also have only played one good half in both of their postseason games: the second half vs. the Ravens, and the first half vs. the Jets. And finally three, the Packers brought the snowstorm weather from Green Bay to Dallas. Is this an omen and a sign of things to come? We will see.

I am going to take the Steelers 30-27, with Roethlisberger leading a game winning drive to win the game at the end. If I am wrong, I will be the happiest person in the world. Only 30 hours until kickoff! I am so jacked up.