With the NFL Combine set to begin next week, I will give my first mock of the year for the 2011 NFL Draft. Enjoy...and also enjoy the fact that our Green Bay Packers our World Champions! :).
1. Carolina: Nick Fairley/DT Auburn
The best player in this draft goes to a team in need of a defensive tackle.
2. Denver: Da'Quan Bowers/ DE Clemson
Bowers is the most athletic defensive lineman to come out since Mario Williams.
3. Buffalo: Cam Newton/ QB Auburn
The Bills need someone to sell tickets and Fitzpatrick is not the answer.
4. Cincinnati: AJ Green/ WR Georgia
With OchoCinco and Owens both likely gone, this seems like a sure lock at this point.
5. Auburn: Von Miller/ LB Texas A&M
Joey Porter isn't getting any younger. Miller is a true speed rusher that will get to the quarterback.
6. Cleveland: Marcel Dareus/ DE Alabama
Dareus would be a great fit for a team moving to a 3-4.
7. San Francisco: Patrick Peterson/ CB LSU
The most talented player in this draft in my opinion is a steal at this point.
8. Tennessee: Blaine Gabbert/ QB Missouri
I have questions about Gabbert, but the fact is the Titans desperately need a quarterback.
9. Dallas: Prince Amukumara/ CB Nebraska
Michael Jenkins was exposed this season and Terrence Newman isn't getting any younger.
10. Washington: Julio Jones/ WR Nebraska
Really torn between Jones and Robert Quinn here. We'll see this plays out.
11. Houston: Aldon Smith/ DE Missouri
Houston is switching to the 3-4 and will need a pass rusher.
12. Minnesota: Robert Quinn/ DE North Carolina
It will be interesting to see how Quinn works out next week after a year off from football.
13. Detroit: Nate Solder/ T Colorado
The Lions need a franchise left tackle. Solder and Cherilous will solidify the two tackle positions.
14. St. Louis: Corey Liuget/ DT Illinois
The Rams struggled stopping the run up the middle this year.
15. MiamiL Mark Ingram/RB Alabama
This is a slam dunk in my opinion.
16. Jacksonville: Ryan Kerrigan/ DE Purdue
Its rumored Jacksonville really like Kerrigan who is a high character guy.
17. New England: Cameron Jordan/ DE California
New England's biggest need is a 3-4 DE, so this is a perfect fit.
18. San Diego: JJ Watt/ DE Wisconsin
Let the run on defensive ends continue. San Diego would be eccstatic if Watt fell here.
19. New York Giants: Tyron Smith/ T USC
The Giants don't have many glaring holes, but a tackle would be an upgrade.
20. Tampa Bay: Adrian Clayborn/ DE Iowa
The Bucs defensive ends were attrocious last season.
21. Kansas City: Phil Taylor/ DT
A strong senior bowl has him flying up the draft boards.
22. Indianapolis: Anthony Costanzo/ T Boston College
I have Carimi rated higher, but Costanzo projects as a left tackle which is what the Colts need.
23. Philadelphia: Gabe Carimi/ T Wisconsin
See Wintston Justice getting abused by Clay Matthews in the Wild Card game.
24. New Orleans: Akeem Ayers/ LB UCLA
The Saints look set on offense so expect this pick to be defense.
25. Seattle: Jimmy Smith/ CB Colorado
Another prospect shooting up draft boards. With a strong combine, he could continue to do just that.
26. Baltimore: Brandon Harris/ CB Miami
Baltimore loves playmakers from the U. Here is another.
27. Atlanta: Titus Young/WR Boise State
Surprise! Atlanta needs a receiver with wheels that can stretch the field.
28. New England: Torry Smith/ WR Maryland
New England needs a deep threat to replace Randy Moss.
29. Chicago: Mike Pouncey/ G Florida
Pouncey falls right into Chicago's lap who is in desperate need of a left guard.
30. New York Jets: Justin Houston/ OLB Georgia
It is obvious the Jets still need help rushing the passer and Houston fits that mold.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cameron Heyward/ DE Ohio State
The value of Heyward here is too good for the Steelers to pass up.
32. Green Bay Packers: Derrick Sherrod/ T Mississippi State
We never know what Ted Thompson does but we do know that if a player slips, he will grab him. Sherrod is a first round talent at tackle and would be able to fill in when Clifton retires. I am sure Ted Thompson is hoping for Justin Houston to fall here as he may be an instant starter oppositve of Matthews. Another possibility is Texas cornerback Aaron Williams.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Super Bowl Champions!
Finally! That is the word that first pops into my head. I have finally witnessed one of my teams win a championship (that I can remember watching) and who better than the team I love most of all: the Green Bay Packers. And what a feeling it really is. When Roethlisberger's pass hit the turf and there was no yellow on the field, I leaped out of my seat and shouted YES!! and hugged the first person of many that I could get my arms around at my Packer party. I couldn't take it anymore. After a couple minutes of celebrating I locked myself in the bathroom and teared up, while telling myself repeatedly, "We are Super Bowl Champions. Thank You!" It was the greatest moment of my sporting fandom career and I have a hard time believing that feeling will be surpassed. Think about it: With all the injuries that the Packers suffered, and then just sneaking into the playoffs by the slightest margins. Then, they won three straight road games against the top 3 teams in the NFC in back to back to back weeks on their route to the Super Bowl. That time of adversity that the team overcame...I mean wow, it just doesn't get much better than that. I get goosebumps and a wide smile on my face just thinking about it. Now, when I look back on my blog in the future, I can remember the exact feeling that I had when the Packers had captured Super Bowl 45. Here are my thoughts of the greatest Packer game that I have witnessed as a fan:
1) Aaron Rodgers is unbelievable. I know I gave him high praise after the Falcons game, but I need to do so again. There is no better player in the NFL than Aaron Rodgers. That is right. I truly believe Rodgers is the best player in the league. Brady may have something to say about that, but he looked older in that Jets game. Peyton Manning, on the other hand, is actually old and may only have five years left in his tank. Manning did not have a great season this year, and I wouldn't think twice taking Rodgers over him. Brees was phenomonal last season, but he made some questionable decisions this season with the football that led to many interceptions. Face it. Quarterback is the most important position for a football team, and there is not better quarterback in football than Aaron Rodgers. He is only 27 years old and he has no glaring weaknesses. His accuracy allows him to make any throw on the field, which was demonstrated in that championship game. The third touchdown before half to Greg Jennings over the middle had me saying to myself, "How did he make that throw?" There were three guys in a very tight window and Ryan Clark was one inch from tipping that ball. The amount of velocity on that ball with the pinpoint accuracy makes that throw just about impossible to defend. Rodgers also has the best poise of any quarterback in the league, which I think many people tend to underrate. Rodgers looked very calm on the Packers final drive and made the biggest throw of his career on a 3rd and 10 pass to Greg Jennings that was fit right down the seam. It was superb coverage by Ike Taylor, but the throw was just better. It was just a normal day for Rodgers: He was better than everyone else on the field, earning Super Bowl MVP honors and a new slick convertible on top of that.
2) The biggest plays of the game. There are 2 huge plays that stand out in my mind, and I cannot decide which one was more important. The first play of the fourth quarter Rashard Mendenhall took a carry to the right side, where he was met by Clay Matthews and the deep penetration by Ryan Pickett. Matthews put a stick on Mendenhall, jarring the ball loose before being picked up by Desmond Bishop. That play stopped all the Steelers momentum that they had gained in a tough 3rd quarter for the Packers. Without that fumble, I have no doubt in my mind that the Steelers would drive down and score to take their first lead of the ball game. The Packers were once again able to take advantage of the Steelers' third turnover and turned it into a touchdown (they finished with 21 points off turnovers).
The Packers were pinned back at their only 25 yard line on 3rd and 10 with only 6 minutes left to play and needed a first down to take some more time off the clock, since the Steelers only had one timeout. Rodgers took the snap and found only a three man rush, giving him loads of time to find Jennings down the seam who had half a step on Ike Taylor. Taylor reached out and barely missed the ball, allowing Jennings to gain 32 yards and keep the clock moving. If the Packers do not convert there, they go 3 and out and give the ball right back to the Steelers, who would have all the momentum in the world. Sam Shields was done for the game after his last drive where Mike Wallace abused him. With the Steelers momentum, I would not have liked Pat Lee and Jarrett Bush out there while the Steelers had a chance to tie or take the lead late in the ball game. Remember, with only six minutes left, the Steelers probably would have had the ball around their own 35 and could have had a steady drive that took just enough time off the clock. A Steelers touchdown, and the Packers and Aaron Rodgers may not have had enough time to go all the way down and score a touchdown again, no matter how great Aaron was playing. Just something to think about.
3. I am so happy for Charles Woodson and Donald Driver. The two are veterans, warriors, leaders, and just tough football players. I feel awful that they could not finish the game, but they finally were able to get that ring that they were coveting their whole careers. Charles Woodson broke his collarbone, covering a deep route since he was forced to play out wide with the departure of Sam Shields. Driver was tackled by two Steelers defenders where his ankle got caught underneath and buckled. Neither went back in the game and were left in tears at the prospects of not returning. Woodson gave an emotional halftime speach that he could not finish because he was choked back by tears. His Packer teammates were extremely motivated and told the veteran that they would win it for him. After the Steelers scored on their first possession of the third quarter, Woodson approached his defensive teammates on the sideline and shouted at them, "Damnit, I thought you were going to do this for me!" FOX cameras captured a great shot (and no I'm not talking about A-Rod being fed by Cameron Diaz) when they saw Woodson celebrate Suisham's missed field goal and then wince in pain. That is the kind of leader Woodson is, and it really speaks volumes of what he means to this team. I really think he will be a future Hall of Famer now that he has the ring. He has a Defensive MVP, multiple Pro Bowls, and now that Super Bowl ring. And what is great is that he got the MVP and Super Bowl ring with Green Bay, meaning he will probably go in as a Green Bay Packer.
4. It was a long halftime for me. Man,and I thought watching Shields leave the game with a shoulder injury would be bad. It caused Charles Woodson to leave his corner/blitzing/slot hybrid and force him to play on the outside where he is much less dangerous. The Steelers went after him on the first play on a vertical route to Mike Wallace. Woodson outstretched for the ball and landed awkwardly on his arm, breaking his collarbone. Knowing how tough Woodson is, I thought it would only be a stinger. Yet, Fergie wasn't enough to distract me from the game at halftime. I kept thinking what if Woodson and Shields are actually unavailable to play the rest of the game? I kept having flashbacks of last season's game between these two teams where Roethlisberger threw for 503 passing yards against our beat up secondary with the likes of Jarrett Bush and Josh Bell. Now it was Bush and Lee along with Tramon Williams who seemed like the only healthy defensive back starter. Roethlisberger just drove down the field on the last drive of the first half with ease on that secondary, and sure enough score to cut the lead to 11 and give the Steelers momentum heading into halftime. It sure did not feel like an 11 point lead because I really fearing if Woodson and Shields would be back. Sure enough, Pam Oliver says Woodson broke his collar bone. Shields did return to the game but only played with one effecive arm, which wasn't enough to stop Mike Wallace from abusing him on his touchdown. Thankfully, the defense held together and I have to give my due to Bush and Pat Lee. The probably weren't expected the play much, but they held their own for the most part in the second half when they were in the game. Bush actually generated some decent pressure playing the Woodson blitzing role, and made Roethlisberger a little uncomfortable. Despit being burnt by Ward for a touchdown in the first half, Bush played his best game as a Green Bay Packer.
5) This video should explain it all. Again, tears to my eyes. After, I watched this video it finally hit me. As Jim Irwin would say, "WORLD CHAMPION, GREEN BAY PACKERS!"
With the season finally over, I will keep posting random football thoughts weekly whether that be about the Packers or the draft. The scouting combine is my next focus!
1) Aaron Rodgers is unbelievable. I know I gave him high praise after the Falcons game, but I need to do so again. There is no better player in the NFL than Aaron Rodgers. That is right. I truly believe Rodgers is the best player in the league. Brady may have something to say about that, but he looked older in that Jets game. Peyton Manning, on the other hand, is actually old and may only have five years left in his tank. Manning did not have a great season this year, and I wouldn't think twice taking Rodgers over him. Brees was phenomonal last season, but he made some questionable decisions this season with the football that led to many interceptions. Face it. Quarterback is the most important position for a football team, and there is not better quarterback in football than Aaron Rodgers. He is only 27 years old and he has no glaring weaknesses. His accuracy allows him to make any throw on the field, which was demonstrated in that championship game. The third touchdown before half to Greg Jennings over the middle had me saying to myself, "How did he make that throw?" There were three guys in a very tight window and Ryan Clark was one inch from tipping that ball. The amount of velocity on that ball with the pinpoint accuracy makes that throw just about impossible to defend. Rodgers also has the best poise of any quarterback in the league, which I think many people tend to underrate. Rodgers looked very calm on the Packers final drive and made the biggest throw of his career on a 3rd and 10 pass to Greg Jennings that was fit right down the seam. It was superb coverage by Ike Taylor, but the throw was just better. It was just a normal day for Rodgers: He was better than everyone else on the field, earning Super Bowl MVP honors and a new slick convertible on top of that.
2) The biggest plays of the game. There are 2 huge plays that stand out in my mind, and I cannot decide which one was more important. The first play of the fourth quarter Rashard Mendenhall took a carry to the right side, where he was met by Clay Matthews and the deep penetration by Ryan Pickett. Matthews put a stick on Mendenhall, jarring the ball loose before being picked up by Desmond Bishop. That play stopped all the Steelers momentum that they had gained in a tough 3rd quarter for the Packers. Without that fumble, I have no doubt in my mind that the Steelers would drive down and score to take their first lead of the ball game. The Packers were once again able to take advantage of the Steelers' third turnover and turned it into a touchdown (they finished with 21 points off turnovers).
The Packers were pinned back at their only 25 yard line on 3rd and 10 with only 6 minutes left to play and needed a first down to take some more time off the clock, since the Steelers only had one timeout. Rodgers took the snap and found only a three man rush, giving him loads of time to find Jennings down the seam who had half a step on Ike Taylor. Taylor reached out and barely missed the ball, allowing Jennings to gain 32 yards and keep the clock moving. If the Packers do not convert there, they go 3 and out and give the ball right back to the Steelers, who would have all the momentum in the world. Sam Shields was done for the game after his last drive where Mike Wallace abused him. With the Steelers momentum, I would not have liked Pat Lee and Jarrett Bush out there while the Steelers had a chance to tie or take the lead late in the ball game. Remember, with only six minutes left, the Steelers probably would have had the ball around their own 35 and could have had a steady drive that took just enough time off the clock. A Steelers touchdown, and the Packers and Aaron Rodgers may not have had enough time to go all the way down and score a touchdown again, no matter how great Aaron was playing. Just something to think about.
3. I am so happy for Charles Woodson and Donald Driver. The two are veterans, warriors, leaders, and just tough football players. I feel awful that they could not finish the game, but they finally were able to get that ring that they were coveting their whole careers. Charles Woodson broke his collarbone, covering a deep route since he was forced to play out wide with the departure of Sam Shields. Driver was tackled by two Steelers defenders where his ankle got caught underneath and buckled. Neither went back in the game and were left in tears at the prospects of not returning. Woodson gave an emotional halftime speach that he could not finish because he was choked back by tears. His Packer teammates were extremely motivated and told the veteran that they would win it for him. After the Steelers scored on their first possession of the third quarter, Woodson approached his defensive teammates on the sideline and shouted at them, "Damnit, I thought you were going to do this for me!" FOX cameras captured a great shot (and no I'm not talking about A-Rod being fed by Cameron Diaz) when they saw Woodson celebrate Suisham's missed field goal and then wince in pain. That is the kind of leader Woodson is, and it really speaks volumes of what he means to this team. I really think he will be a future Hall of Famer now that he has the ring. He has a Defensive MVP, multiple Pro Bowls, and now that Super Bowl ring. And what is great is that he got the MVP and Super Bowl ring with Green Bay, meaning he will probably go in as a Green Bay Packer.
4. It was a long halftime for me. Man,and I thought watching Shields leave the game with a shoulder injury would be bad. It caused Charles Woodson to leave his corner/blitzing/slot hybrid and force him to play on the outside where he is much less dangerous. The Steelers went after him on the first play on a vertical route to Mike Wallace. Woodson outstretched for the ball and landed awkwardly on his arm, breaking his collarbone. Knowing how tough Woodson is, I thought it would only be a stinger. Yet, Fergie wasn't enough to distract me from the game at halftime. I kept thinking what if Woodson and Shields are actually unavailable to play the rest of the game? I kept having flashbacks of last season's game between these two teams where Roethlisberger threw for 503 passing yards against our beat up secondary with the likes of Jarrett Bush and Josh Bell. Now it was Bush and Lee along with Tramon Williams who seemed like the only healthy defensive back starter. Roethlisberger just drove down the field on the last drive of the first half with ease on that secondary, and sure enough score to cut the lead to 11 and give the Steelers momentum heading into halftime. It sure did not feel like an 11 point lead because I really fearing if Woodson and Shields would be back. Sure enough, Pam Oliver says Woodson broke his collar bone. Shields did return to the game but only played with one effecive arm, which wasn't enough to stop Mike Wallace from abusing him on his touchdown. Thankfully, the defense held together and I have to give my due to Bush and Pat Lee. The probably weren't expected the play much, but they held their own for the most part in the second half when they were in the game. Bush actually generated some decent pressure playing the Woodson blitzing role, and made Roethlisberger a little uncomfortable. Despit being burnt by Ward for a touchdown in the first half, Bush played his best game as a Green Bay Packer.
5) This video should explain it all. Again, tears to my eyes. After, I watched this video it finally hit me. As Jim Irwin would say, "WORLD CHAMPION, GREEN BAY PACKERS!"
With the season finally over, I will keep posting random football thoughts weekly whether that be about the Packers or the draft. The scouting combine is my next focus!
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Steelers vs. Packers- 2010 NFL Super Bowl
This is it. Super Bowl XLV is finally here and my beloved Green Bay Packers are in Dallas to play for the Lombardi Trophy. And who better to play in Dallas, then maybe the two most successful franchises in NFL history. The Green Bay Packers have won 12 NFL Championships-the most in NFL history. The Pittsburgh Steelers hoist the most Super Bowl Titles with 6. I don't know what I will do if we win or lose. I really haven't thought ahead of what I may do after the game because I am so pumped for 5:29 Sunday Night kickoff. I am one win away from seeing my favorite team (regardless of sport) win the Championship. And never before have I been this close to really remember it. Some great moments in my young sports life include Marquette's Final Four run when i was in 5th grade, The Bucks Eastern Conference Finals run when I was in 3rd grade, the Badgers Final Four run when I was in 1st grade, the Brewers Wild Card run when I was a junior in high school, and of course the Packers making the NFC Championship game when i was a sophomore in high school. Never however have I been this close, and as I said in my last post, it still hasn't hit me. Let's get into the analysis and prediction.
Reasons why I am optimistic about this matchup:
1) We are in a dome against the Steelers defense. This is kind of two different points combined into one, but two things are clear: the Packers offense is very explosive indoor and the Steelers have struggled in domes recently. We know the Packers were never really known as a dome team in the Favre years. That all changed when Rodgers took over as a starter and he has been simply lights out. In 12 career dome games, Rodgers numbers are absurd: 111.5 passer rating, a 68.8 completion percentage, 286.2 yards per game, and 31 total touchdowns vs. six interceptions. His two dome playoff games have been maybe two of the greatest playoff performances by a quarterback in recent memory- last year at Arizona and this year at Atlanta. The Packers receivers also tend to slip less and are more sure handed in the closed stadium setting. The Steelers have previously had struggles when teams try to spread them out like the Patriots and Saints did this season. The Steelers have also struggled in their last two games in domes- this season vs. the Saints where they lost 20-10, and last season just squeaking by the Lions at Ford Field. I also read that the Steelers on defense play better on grass, which makes sense since offenses are slower on their cuts. However, they are inside and both of their Super Bowl wins we know have come on grass.
2) The Steelers offensive line is in shambles. Especially if Maurkice Pouncey cannot play. Doug Legurskey struggled last week after Pouncey went down and BJ Raji should be able to take advantage whether it is Legurskey or Pouncey on one leg. The Steelers have one of the worst offensive lines in the league even with Pouncey, especially at the tackle position. Flozell Adams is among the league leaders in holding penalties and Jonathan Scott is a midseason replacement when starter Max Starks went down. I think Cullen Jenkins could be in a for a huge day pass rushing more than anyone else because most of the attention for the Steelers line will be on Clay Matthews on the other side. I really believe the Packers will get there, but once they get to Roethlisberger they will have to wrap him up and bring him down instead of letting him get away. The Packers sacked Roethlisberger 5 times last year, but still for the most part had trouble stopping Roethlisberger, who threw for 503 passing yards. This is more in part due to the struggling secondary at the time than the pass rush, but we still know that Roethlisberger may be the hardest quarterback to actually take down in the NFL.
The two biggest strengths of the Packers play into the Steeler's weaknesses, which I am really excited about. The Steelers have a problems protecting Roethlisberger and have not had recent success against spread teams, while the Packers have a very solid pass defense and rush, and a prime aerial attack.
3) The last reason I am optimistic you may not believe: Special teams. The Steelers have one of the worst kickoff coverage teams in the NFL. And remember, last year Mike Tomlin attempted a surprise onside kick on the Packers in the game last season. Now I don't expect Tomlin to do that again, but crazier things have happened. We saw that last year in the Saints-Colts Super Bowl where Payton opened up with an onside kick to start the second half. If the Packers defense can stifle the Steelers, I could see Tomlin potentially going into his trick bag on special teams to turn the tide. Masthay, as I said in my last post is turning into the best Packers punter since the Heintrich days and has been excellent directing his kicks towards the sideline and inside the 20. Brad Smith of the Jets returned the opening kick against the Steelers in the week 15 matchup, forcing Tomlin to call many squib kicks since that moment. Shaun Suisham is a journeyman kicker but is he really that much worse then Crosby, who has only made one clutch kick in his 4 year career? The kicking game is a wash, but the Packers may be able to win the field position battle through special teams if they are able to get a few effective returns and Masthay can continue to remain productive.
Reasons Why I am pessimistic about this matchup:
1) Ben Roethlisberger scares me more than any player on this Steelers team: more than Polamalu, Harrison, and Mendenhall. He just has a knack for coming up big in these types of games. I really feel the Packers will get to him, yet he always sometimes seems to get away. As I said eariler, he is the toughest quarterback to bring down in the league. He takes a lot of sacks, yet he is also probably the best quarterback I have seen at converting 3rd and 10 yards or longer. He does this because the opposing defensive line tends to drop back in coverage and only rush 3 or 4. Roethlisberger usually gets out of trouble, and can either scramble to his right to buy time or stick in the pocket and make and accurate throw downfield for a gain of 20 yards. I excpect the Steelers to convert a couple of 3rd and 12s if Capers chooses to rush 3 and drop everyone back in that scenario. Roethlisberge is vulnerable as he is prone to fumling and taking sacks, but he may be the best clutch quarterback in the game I can think of, and I will be very worried if he is driving the Steelers down for a chance to win the game at the ened.
2) Rashard Mendenhall is a huge key to this game. The Packers have the fastest secondary in the league and I believe they will contain Mike Wallace and the Steelers receiver for the most part. I think Pittsburgh knows that Rodgers is lethal indoors and will try to keep the ball out of his hands as much as they can. Thus, I think the Steelers offensive gameplan will be built around Rashard Mendenhall, who ean about as hard as I have seen a running back run in that AFC Championship game. If the Packers have a weakness on defense, it is stopping the run, and if Mendenhall can grind it out for 3 or 4 yards a carry (he is averaging 3.6 yards per carry in the playoffs) he could keep the clock moving and open up the Steelers offense.
3) The Steelers linebackers are the most feared 3-4 linebackers as a group maybe in the history of the NFL. James Harrison, a former defensive player of the year, will be coming hard off edge against 34 year old Chad Clifton, who may be forced to keep Harrison off Rodgers all by himself. Lamar Woodley, the other edge rush has a least one sack in his six playoff games played and will try and get around rookie Brian Bulaga, who I expect the Packers to give help to. Lawrence Timmons in the middle may be the best all around linebackers of the four and that is saying something. The other inside linebacker is Larry Foote, who is a very solid veteran and is a sure-fire tackler. The linebackers are going to be coming very hard after Rodgers and they're defensive gameplan is to obviously shake Rodgers up. I even wouldn't be surprised to see Harrison go helmet to helmet on Rodgers like he is known for doing (similar to what Peppers did in the NFC Title Game). Think about it: a $50,000 fine is pocket change for a Harrison and the benefit would be knocking Rodgers out of the game. The line is going to have one of their best games of the season protecting Rodgers, because if he is given the time he is needed, he should be able to pick apart a suspect Steelers secondary.
4. The Steelers have the experience. Ok, I know that experience may not mean as much as it is hyped to be (just ask the 1997 Packers and the 2007 New England Patriots- both losers to underdogs). However, the Steelers have been outplayed in both of their last two Super Bowls (Seattle and Arizona) and still came out with a W. They know how to win games in which they do not play their best, even if it is ugly. I think the Packers will outplay the Steelers, but will it be enough to win the game is my question.
The Steelers game reminds me exactly of the game leading up to the Falcons game for 3 reasons. One is the game is inside, which means the Rodgers-led passing attack could be an aerial assault on Sunday night, in a game that I really did not expect to be a blowout at all. Two is the Steelers have played a very weak schedule this season, much like Atlanta. They ended the season, with the Panthers and Browns to lock up the 2 seed. They also have only played one good half in both of their postseason games: the second half vs. the Ravens, and the first half vs. the Jets. And finally three, the Packers brought the snowstorm weather from Green Bay to Dallas. Is this an omen and a sign of things to come? We will see.
I am going to take the Steelers 30-27, with Roethlisberger leading a game winning drive to win the game at the end. If I am wrong, I will be the happiest person in the world. Only 30 hours until kickoff! I am so jacked up.
Reasons why I am optimistic about this matchup:
1) We are in a dome against the Steelers defense. This is kind of two different points combined into one, but two things are clear: the Packers offense is very explosive indoor and the Steelers have struggled in domes recently. We know the Packers were never really known as a dome team in the Favre years. That all changed when Rodgers took over as a starter and he has been simply lights out. In 12 career dome games, Rodgers numbers are absurd: 111.5 passer rating, a 68.8 completion percentage, 286.2 yards per game, and 31 total touchdowns vs. six interceptions. His two dome playoff games have been maybe two of the greatest playoff performances by a quarterback in recent memory- last year at Arizona and this year at Atlanta. The Packers receivers also tend to slip less and are more sure handed in the closed stadium setting. The Steelers have previously had struggles when teams try to spread them out like the Patriots and Saints did this season. The Steelers have also struggled in their last two games in domes- this season vs. the Saints where they lost 20-10, and last season just squeaking by the Lions at Ford Field. I also read that the Steelers on defense play better on grass, which makes sense since offenses are slower on their cuts. However, they are inside and both of their Super Bowl wins we know have come on grass.
2) The Steelers offensive line is in shambles. Especially if Maurkice Pouncey cannot play. Doug Legurskey struggled last week after Pouncey went down and BJ Raji should be able to take advantage whether it is Legurskey or Pouncey on one leg. The Steelers have one of the worst offensive lines in the league even with Pouncey, especially at the tackle position. Flozell Adams is among the league leaders in holding penalties and Jonathan Scott is a midseason replacement when starter Max Starks went down. I think Cullen Jenkins could be in a for a huge day pass rushing more than anyone else because most of the attention for the Steelers line will be on Clay Matthews on the other side. I really believe the Packers will get there, but once they get to Roethlisberger they will have to wrap him up and bring him down instead of letting him get away. The Packers sacked Roethlisberger 5 times last year, but still for the most part had trouble stopping Roethlisberger, who threw for 503 passing yards. This is more in part due to the struggling secondary at the time than the pass rush, but we still know that Roethlisberger may be the hardest quarterback to actually take down in the NFL.
The two biggest strengths of the Packers play into the Steeler's weaknesses, which I am really excited about. The Steelers have a problems protecting Roethlisberger and have not had recent success against spread teams, while the Packers have a very solid pass defense and rush, and a prime aerial attack.
3) The last reason I am optimistic you may not believe: Special teams. The Steelers have one of the worst kickoff coverage teams in the NFL. And remember, last year Mike Tomlin attempted a surprise onside kick on the Packers in the game last season. Now I don't expect Tomlin to do that again, but crazier things have happened. We saw that last year in the Saints-Colts Super Bowl where Payton opened up with an onside kick to start the second half. If the Packers defense can stifle the Steelers, I could see Tomlin potentially going into his trick bag on special teams to turn the tide. Masthay, as I said in my last post is turning into the best Packers punter since the Heintrich days and has been excellent directing his kicks towards the sideline and inside the 20. Brad Smith of the Jets returned the opening kick against the Steelers in the week 15 matchup, forcing Tomlin to call many squib kicks since that moment. Shaun Suisham is a journeyman kicker but is he really that much worse then Crosby, who has only made one clutch kick in his 4 year career? The kicking game is a wash, but the Packers may be able to win the field position battle through special teams if they are able to get a few effective returns and Masthay can continue to remain productive.
Reasons Why I am pessimistic about this matchup:
1) Ben Roethlisberger scares me more than any player on this Steelers team: more than Polamalu, Harrison, and Mendenhall. He just has a knack for coming up big in these types of games. I really feel the Packers will get to him, yet he always sometimes seems to get away. As I said eariler, he is the toughest quarterback to bring down in the league. He takes a lot of sacks, yet he is also probably the best quarterback I have seen at converting 3rd and 10 yards or longer. He does this because the opposing defensive line tends to drop back in coverage and only rush 3 or 4. Roethlisberger usually gets out of trouble, and can either scramble to his right to buy time or stick in the pocket and make and accurate throw downfield for a gain of 20 yards. I excpect the Steelers to convert a couple of 3rd and 12s if Capers chooses to rush 3 and drop everyone back in that scenario. Roethlisberge is vulnerable as he is prone to fumling and taking sacks, but he may be the best clutch quarterback in the game I can think of, and I will be very worried if he is driving the Steelers down for a chance to win the game at the ened.
2) Rashard Mendenhall is a huge key to this game. The Packers have the fastest secondary in the league and I believe they will contain Mike Wallace and the Steelers receiver for the most part. I think Pittsburgh knows that Rodgers is lethal indoors and will try to keep the ball out of his hands as much as they can. Thus, I think the Steelers offensive gameplan will be built around Rashard Mendenhall, who ean about as hard as I have seen a running back run in that AFC Championship game. If the Packers have a weakness on defense, it is stopping the run, and if Mendenhall can grind it out for 3 or 4 yards a carry (he is averaging 3.6 yards per carry in the playoffs) he could keep the clock moving and open up the Steelers offense.
3) The Steelers linebackers are the most feared 3-4 linebackers as a group maybe in the history of the NFL. James Harrison, a former defensive player of the year, will be coming hard off edge against 34 year old Chad Clifton, who may be forced to keep Harrison off Rodgers all by himself. Lamar Woodley, the other edge rush has a least one sack in his six playoff games played and will try and get around rookie Brian Bulaga, who I expect the Packers to give help to. Lawrence Timmons in the middle may be the best all around linebackers of the four and that is saying something. The other inside linebacker is Larry Foote, who is a very solid veteran and is a sure-fire tackler. The linebackers are going to be coming very hard after Rodgers and they're defensive gameplan is to obviously shake Rodgers up. I even wouldn't be surprised to see Harrison go helmet to helmet on Rodgers like he is known for doing (similar to what Peppers did in the NFC Title Game). Think about it: a $50,000 fine is pocket change for a Harrison and the benefit would be knocking Rodgers out of the game. The line is going to have one of their best games of the season protecting Rodgers, because if he is given the time he is needed, he should be able to pick apart a suspect Steelers secondary.
4. The Steelers have the experience. Ok, I know that experience may not mean as much as it is hyped to be (just ask the 1997 Packers and the 2007 New England Patriots- both losers to underdogs). However, the Steelers have been outplayed in both of their last two Super Bowls (Seattle and Arizona) and still came out with a W. They know how to win games in which they do not play their best, even if it is ugly. I think the Packers will outplay the Steelers, but will it be enough to win the game is my question.
The Steelers game reminds me exactly of the game leading up to the Falcons game for 3 reasons. One is the game is inside, which means the Rodgers-led passing attack could be an aerial assault on Sunday night, in a game that I really did not expect to be a blowout at all. Two is the Steelers have played a very weak schedule this season, much like Atlanta. They ended the season, with the Panthers and Browns to lock up the 2 seed. They also have only played one good half in both of their postseason games: the second half vs. the Ravens, and the first half vs. the Jets. And finally three, the Packers brought the snowstorm weather from Green Bay to Dallas. Is this an omen and a sign of things to come? We will see.
I am going to take the Steelers 30-27, with Roethlisberger leading a game winning drive to win the game at the end. If I am wrong, I will be the happiest person in the world. Only 30 hours until kickoff! I am so jacked up.
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