Lambeau Field will host a playoff game for the first time since the Packers lost to the New York Giants back in the 2007 NFC Championship game. Ironically that same opponent will be the New York Giants. Here are reasons why I love this matchup and hate it.
Reasons Why I love this matchup:
1) Revenge Factor: I guarantee the Packers who were on the team in 2007 have not forgotten when the Giants came into Green Bay in frigid conditions and knocked off the Packers on route to the Super Bowl. Greg Jennings tweeted this week that he has not forgotten and I am sure Mike McCarthy hasn’t also. By now, he knows what it takes to coach in the playoffs and he will have his team prepared and ready.
2) Aaron Rodgers vs. the Giants secondary: The Giants have a lot of high draft picks in their secondary including first rounders Aaron Ross, Kenny Phillips, Antrel Rolle, and Prince Amukumara. However, that doesn’t mean they are a great secondary by any means. Rodgers seemed a bit off in the first meeting especially early, while his receivers had a hard time hanging onto the football. If Rodgers doesn’t show any rust from his three week layoff (which I believe he will not) and the receivers catch the ball on key third downs unlike last game, the Packers should be able to move the ball through the air with success. The Giants simply do not have the secondary to cover Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and JerMichael Finley.
3) Health Factor: Finally, this Packers team is the healthiest it has been all season at just the right time. Tackle Chad Clifton returns and could be an upgrade over Marshall Newhouse who struggled in the first meeting against Giants end Jason Pierre-Paul. The Packers will also have both starting middle inside linebackers, AJ Hawk and Desmond Bishop, who missed the December 4th matchup. Their absence led the Giants to run the ball with ease against rookie linebacker DJ Smith and the inexperience Robert Francois. Greg Jennings returns from a sprained knee that sidelined him since the Kansas City game. Jennings had a huge game against the Giants defense in the first meeting catching seven passes for 94 yards and a touchdown.
Reasons Why I hate this matchup:
1) The Giants defensive front four: Jason Pierre-Paul is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and was in Aaron Rodgers’ face the majority of the time during the first meeting. Pierre-Paul is a difference maker and can single handedly change a game by getting to the quarterback as we saw in their meeting with Dallas in week 14 on Sunday Night Football. Justin Tuck is also a feared pass rusher and finally looks to be at full health for the first time in a while. Chris Canty benefits in the middle as the offensive line focuses on the end rush. Osi Umenyiora may be aging but he will come in specifically on passing downs and be another asset that the Packers will have to worry about. If the front four can get to Aaron Rodgers and pressure him, then the Giants can drop extra guys back in coverage and limit the Green Bay passing attack.
2) Eli Manning: It depends on which Eli Manning shows up to Lambeau. If it is the one that came last December and threw four picks then the Packers will be in great shape. However, if it is the one that came into Lambeau on a late January night back in 07, then the Packers could be in trouble. The chances are that Manning will play like the latter based on his recent performances against Dallas and Atlanta. The Packers must not allow big plays in the passing game like in the first game or this one could be a shootout again.
3) Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw: I will never forget on the first play in 07 when Jacobs ran over Charles Woodson on a sweep right. The tempo was set from that point forward by the G-Men. The Packers are going to need to slow down the running game and force the Giants to pass. Despite having a shakier pass defense than run defense, if the Packers can limit the ground game, they can prevent the Giants from controlling the ball and clock, and limit the Packers possessions. If the Giants can limit the Packers to seven or eight possessions for the game, there is a strong chance that they can come back into Lambeau and do it again.
Overall: As a Packer fan this game really worries me because the Giants have the potential to use the same ingredients that the Chiefs used in the Packers only defeat. I see this game going back and forth with neither defense having an answer for the opposing team’s quarterback. In the end, I expect the Packers to prevail at home in a game that could in fact be
Friday, January 13, 2012
NFL Divisional Round Preview
New Orleans at San Francisco, 4:30ET FOX
This game was looking like it was going to be inevitable after about week 12 in the NFL season, as neither team was going to catch the Pack for the top seed. The only question was where it was going to be played. Good thing for the 49ers that this game is at Candlestick as we have seen what Brees and his arsenal of weapons have done in the SuperDome as of late, dismantling the Falcons, Panthers, and Lions the last three weeks. However, the Saints must now prove that they can win on the road. The last two postseason that the Saints have gone on the road to play outdoors, they have come away with defeat: at Seattle last year and in the NFC Championship game against the Bears back in 2006. The 49ers definitely have the defense to slow down the Saints. On the defensive line, rookie Aldon Smith has made a huge impact right away, while Justin Smith has had an All-Pro caliber year. However, the strength of this defense is at linebacker with Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman. However, the greatest strength of the Saints is their aerial attack, while the weakest asset of the Niner defense is the secondary. The 49ers must generate pressure on Brees and not allow him to step up in the pocket, which is when he is most dangerous. The 49ers have the formula for keeping the Saints offense off of the field, with a power running game led by Frank Gore. If the 49ers are able to control the time of possession and keep Brees on the sideline, they have a very good chance at winning, especially since the Saints run defense is nothing to really worry about it. However, I just do not see the 49ers being able to stop the passing attack of Brees. The running game will likely be hampered, which will force the Saints to throw even more than what they have been. If there is a weakness in the 49ers defense it is in the secondary. I expect the Saints to throw all over the field on the 49ers and go up in the ball game early. Going up early will force the trailing 49ers to throw the ball more than intended and get away from their initial game plan of controlling the clock and running the football. Expect this game to be close at halftime but the Saints to pull away in the second half. New Orleans 31, San Francisco 14
Denver at New England, 8:00ET CBS
As soon as Demariyus Thomas stiff armed Ike Taylor and ran toward the endzone, my first thought was how awful of a game Denver and New England would be to showcases on Saturday night. My next thought was that it can’t be any worse than last year’s Saturday night primetime matchup with the Packers routing the Falcons. Then as the week went on, I began to warm up to this game and actually began to think that this may be a good game. The first time these two teams met, the Patriots dominated in almost every facet, and that could very well happen again on Saturday night. However, remember last year when the Patriots dominated the Jets in a Monday Night Football game, and everyone cast the Jets aside. They met again in this very round, and the Jets pulled off the upset followed by the famous CANT WAIT speech from Bart Scott. The Patriots have one of the worst defenses in football, so the points will be there for the taking for this Tim Tebow led offense. Due to the recent success passing the ball, the Patriots will be forced to play more honest, and this may allow the Broncos running game with Willis McGahee to gain some positive yards and keep Tom Brady off of the field. While all the focus of this game will be on Tebow, the game will be won or lost for Denver based on the play of their defense. Tom Brady tore the Denver defense to shred in the Week 15 matchup between these two teams. Denver has the playmakers on defense with Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller, and Champ Bailey to make plays and disrupt the Patriots offense. If they are able to force Brady into a turnover or two, and also get one or two more stops more than the last game, the Broncos will be right there with New England. In the end, Brady and the Patriots offense will be too much for the Broncos, but don’t expect Denver to go away easily. New England 30, Denver 20
Houston at Baltimore, 1:00ET CBS
Yes, this game is still happening this weekend despite receiving basically no attention at all this week from the media. Overshadowed by the other three games, this game may end up being the closest of the four games this weekend. Both teams have strong defenses and somewhat inconsistent offenses at times. Joe Flacco has been somewhat inconsistent this year, especially in losses against lower level teams like the Chargers and the Seahawks. However, Flacco is still three for three in the opening game of the postseason in his three years in the league. He is often times compared to his draft class mate Matt Ryan. While not as good of a pure passer as Ryan, Flacco has been more successful at making runs in the postseason. Now the Ravens hope that he can go one step further and take them to the Super Bowl. Torrey Smith will be huge in this game. In the Ravens losses this season, Smith has been invisible, but Smith is probably the number one playmaker through the air for Baltimore. With one of the best running backs in the game for the Texans to worry about in Ray Rice, the passing game should be effective. Jonathan Joseph will probably be locking down Anquan Boldin, which should open up for Smith to do his damage. On the other side, TJ Yates will go against the stiffest test of his young career against Defensive MVP candidate Terrell Suggs and the Ravens defense. The Ravens will be focusing on shutting down Arian Foster, which is going to force Yates to make some plays with his arm. He will need to look the way of stud receiver Andre Johnson, who may need a Calvin Johnson vs. Saint like performance to keep the Texans in the game. However, if there is one weakness in that Ravens defense it would be in that pass defense. The only question is if Yates can deliver the goods. With both defenses and the running back play being a wash, I will go with the experience of Joe Flacco in the preseason over rookie TJ Yates making only his eighth career start. Ravens 24, Texans 13
I will have a more in-depth preview of my Green Bay Packers and their opponent the New York Giants coming up later today.
This game was looking like it was going to be inevitable after about week 12 in the NFL season, as neither team was going to catch the Pack for the top seed. The only question was where it was going to be played. Good thing for the 49ers that this game is at Candlestick as we have seen what Brees and his arsenal of weapons have done in the SuperDome as of late, dismantling the Falcons, Panthers, and Lions the last three weeks. However, the Saints must now prove that they can win on the road. The last two postseason that the Saints have gone on the road to play outdoors, they have come away with defeat: at Seattle last year and in the NFC Championship game against the Bears back in 2006. The 49ers definitely have the defense to slow down the Saints. On the defensive line, rookie Aldon Smith has made a huge impact right away, while Justin Smith has had an All-Pro caliber year. However, the strength of this defense is at linebacker with Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman. However, the greatest strength of the Saints is their aerial attack, while the weakest asset of the Niner defense is the secondary. The 49ers must generate pressure on Brees and not allow him to step up in the pocket, which is when he is most dangerous. The 49ers have the formula for keeping the Saints offense off of the field, with a power running game led by Frank Gore. If the 49ers are able to control the time of possession and keep Brees on the sideline, they have a very good chance at winning, especially since the Saints run defense is nothing to really worry about it. However, I just do not see the 49ers being able to stop the passing attack of Brees. The running game will likely be hampered, which will force the Saints to throw even more than what they have been. If there is a weakness in the 49ers defense it is in the secondary. I expect the Saints to throw all over the field on the 49ers and go up in the ball game early. Going up early will force the trailing 49ers to throw the ball more than intended and get away from their initial game plan of controlling the clock and running the football. Expect this game to be close at halftime but the Saints to pull away in the second half. New Orleans 31, San Francisco 14
Denver at New England, 8:00ET CBS
As soon as Demariyus Thomas stiff armed Ike Taylor and ran toward the endzone, my first thought was how awful of a game Denver and New England would be to showcases on Saturday night. My next thought was that it can’t be any worse than last year’s Saturday night primetime matchup with the Packers routing the Falcons. Then as the week went on, I began to warm up to this game and actually began to think that this may be a good game. The first time these two teams met, the Patriots dominated in almost every facet, and that could very well happen again on Saturday night. However, remember last year when the Patriots dominated the Jets in a Monday Night Football game, and everyone cast the Jets aside. They met again in this very round, and the Jets pulled off the upset followed by the famous CANT WAIT speech from Bart Scott. The Patriots have one of the worst defenses in football, so the points will be there for the taking for this Tim Tebow led offense. Due to the recent success passing the ball, the Patriots will be forced to play more honest, and this may allow the Broncos running game with Willis McGahee to gain some positive yards and keep Tom Brady off of the field. While all the focus of this game will be on Tebow, the game will be won or lost for Denver based on the play of their defense. Tom Brady tore the Denver defense to shred in the Week 15 matchup between these two teams. Denver has the playmakers on defense with Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller, and Champ Bailey to make plays and disrupt the Patriots offense. If they are able to force Brady into a turnover or two, and also get one or two more stops more than the last game, the Broncos will be right there with New England. In the end, Brady and the Patriots offense will be too much for the Broncos, but don’t expect Denver to go away easily. New England 30, Denver 20
Houston at Baltimore, 1:00ET CBS
Yes, this game is still happening this weekend despite receiving basically no attention at all this week from the media. Overshadowed by the other three games, this game may end up being the closest of the four games this weekend. Both teams have strong defenses and somewhat inconsistent offenses at times. Joe Flacco has been somewhat inconsistent this year, especially in losses against lower level teams like the Chargers and the Seahawks. However, Flacco is still three for three in the opening game of the postseason in his three years in the league. He is often times compared to his draft class mate Matt Ryan. While not as good of a pure passer as Ryan, Flacco has been more successful at making runs in the postseason. Now the Ravens hope that he can go one step further and take them to the Super Bowl. Torrey Smith will be huge in this game. In the Ravens losses this season, Smith has been invisible, but Smith is probably the number one playmaker through the air for Baltimore. With one of the best running backs in the game for the Texans to worry about in Ray Rice, the passing game should be effective. Jonathan Joseph will probably be locking down Anquan Boldin, which should open up for Smith to do his damage. On the other side, TJ Yates will go against the stiffest test of his young career against Defensive MVP candidate Terrell Suggs and the Ravens defense. The Ravens will be focusing on shutting down Arian Foster, which is going to force Yates to make some plays with his arm. He will need to look the way of stud receiver Andre Johnson, who may need a Calvin Johnson vs. Saint like performance to keep the Texans in the game. However, if there is one weakness in that Ravens defense it would be in that pass defense. The only question is if Yates can deliver the goods. With both defenses and the running back play being a wash, I will go with the experience of Joe Flacco in the preseason over rookie TJ Yates making only his eighth career start. Ravens 24, Texans 13
I will have a more in-depth preview of my Green Bay Packers and their opponent the New York Giants coming up later today.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Wild Card Predictions In Depth
One of the most exciting weekends in sports begins Saturday afternoon with NFL Wild Card Weekend. While Green Bay, San Francisco, New England, and Baltimore will be watching and resting up for the Divisional round, it becomes a win or go home scenario for eight other teams. Here is a breakdown and analysis of each wild card game, accompanied with my prediction.
Cincinnati at Houston, Saturday 4:30ET NBC
This game may have significantly less intrigue than the three others, but that doesn't mean it is not important especially for the Houston Texans, who enter the postseason for the first time in franchise history. The Bengals return to the postseason for the third time in six years, but this time not with Carson Palmer under center. Relient Stadium should be rocking for the playoffs, which gives a distinct edge to the Texans on their home field. Both defenses rank among the top in the NFL, which tells me this will be a low scoring game. Connor Barwin has had a great year with 11.5 sacks filling in for Mario Williams at the 3-4 OLB position. Former Bengal Jonathan Joseph has shut his half of the field down all year and may have been the most valuable free agent signing in the offseason-shortened lockout. On the other side, the Bengals may have been the most surprising defense, but have had huge years from Rey Maugaluga at the inside backer position, along with defensive tackle Geno Atkins who had a Pro Bowl type year. Both defenses may be a wash, which tells me this game will be won by whoever makes a big play at the end on the offensive side of the ball. Rookie quarterbacks Andy Dalton and T.J. Yates step in to make their first postseason starts. The edge goes to Dalton based on more experience and a stronger arm. Look for both teams to pound it on the ground for most of the game and keep it out of their rookie quarterbacks' hands until a play is needed to be made. I will take the more experienced Dalton in that situation, as I expect him to throw a late touchdown pass to stud rookie receiver A.J. Green to send the Bengals to New England. Final Score: Cincinnati 17, Houston 13
Detroit at New Orleans, Saturday 8:00ET NBC
This one has the potential to be a lot of fun. Both the Lions and the Saints like to score with the best of them, which could lead to some fireworks Saturday night at the SuperDome. The Lions last week were exposed by Green Bay Packers backup quarterback Matt Flynn in snowy conditions at Lambeau Field, giving up 480 yards passing and 6 touchdown passes. That makes it scary to think of the possibility of what Brees may do to the Lions in the SuperDome, where he has been deadly all year. This year Brees is 8-0 at home, which propelled him to setting the NFL single season passing yard record with one game still left in the regular season. The only way Detroit may have a chance of containing Brees is if their defensive line can get to him. In the teams' meeting on Sunday Night Football on December 4th, the two best defensive linemen on the Lions, Ndamukong Suh and Cliff Avril were both inactive. The Lions hung with the Saints and trailed only by 7 entering the 4th quarter, only to lose by 14 in the end. However, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford may be emerging as one of the best in the game, after throwing for 5.000 yards passing this season. He and stud wideout Calvin Johnson are going to need a game like last week (where Johnson had 11 catches for 244 yards) in order to keep up with the Saints. Look for the Saints to cover Johnson with their best corner Jabrari Greer, and also shadow him with a safety over the top like Roman Harper. In the end I expect Stafford to throw a few interceptions as he is prone to doing, and that being the difference. Darren Sproles should also be a huge difference maker, as no one has figured out how to cover him yet this season. Final Score: New Orleans 38, Detroit 28.
Atlanta at New York Giants, Sunday 1:00ET FOX
This is a great matchup as both teams enter the postseason with a little bit of momentum. The Giants recently knocked the Cowboys out of the playoffs, one week after pretty much eliminating their cross town rival, the New York Jets from playoff contention. One week after being destroyed by the Saints in New Orleans, the Falcons cruised past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to earn the fvie seed and avoid heading back to the SuperDome in the Wild Card round. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is still trying to win his first playoff game as he is 0-2 in postseason play in his first three NFL seasons with losses to Arizona his rookie year, and Green Bay last year. A lot of the pressure is on Ryan in this game, as Matty Ice must get the monkey off his back and prove he can win big postseason games. Remember, Ryan was pegged as Michael Vick's replacement and has done a solid job, but Atlanta is constantly appearing to be a solid regular season team, only to always fall short in the playoffs. They took a huge risk in trading up to snag rookie wide receiver Julio Jones in the first round of last years draft, and failed to shorten up that defense, which has struggled tremendously at times this season. Look for Eli Manning and his offense to exploit the Falcons defense. Receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz appear to be the best one-two duo in the NFL, and Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs both appear to be healthy. If the good Eli shows up, which isn't always certain, I expect the Giants to win by a couple scores. However, the Falcons should stay in this game through Michael Turner. If Turner can pound the ball, keep the clock moving, and keep the ball out of Eli's hands, this one should go down to the wire. That is what I expect the Falcons gameplan to be. Yet, the Giants defensive line is the difference in this one. With Matthias Kiwinuka there to stuff the run, and Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Osi Umenyora all on the field at the same time rusing the passer, the Falcons offensive line could have protection issues. If the Giants are able to generate pressue on passing downs with those four, and allow the linebackers to drop back and help in coverage, it could be a tough day for Matt Ryan. Final Score: New York 24, Atlanta 21
Pittsburgh at Denver, Sunday 4:15ET CBS
Too many this game has the most intrigue, but it probably will end up being the most boring game of the four. Sure, Tim Tebow verses the mighty Steelers defense could draw huge ratings, but that doesn't mean it will be a pretty football game. It first appeared the Steelers would mow over whoever they faced out of the AFC West, especially considering Denver backed into the playoffs with a loss to Kansas City to finish the season at 8-8. However, the Steelers have many issues that have erupted over the past few weeks. Since the game will be played in Denver, starting safety Ryan Clark will be unable to play due to a sickle cell trait that is dangerous to play in with the high altitude of Denver. In the 3rd quarter of last weeks victory over the Cleveland Browns, starting running back Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL and was lost for postseason. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is hobbling on his sprained ankle, and center Maurkice Pouncey has been ruled out with an injury. Three valuable starters and an injured quarterback does not equal a recipe of success in getting through the playoffs. However, Pittsburgh still has Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and Lamar Woodley to anchor the defense. Mike Wallace, one of the NFL's bigggest deep threats, remains, and Antonio Brown has emerged to be a very reliable number two receiver. It should be enough to get by Denver, who seemingly can't do anything on offense as of late. Tim Tebow's miracle ride appears over, but that doesnt mean that the Broncos have no chance. Denver has the defense to also stop the Steelers, and a running game to make this a grind-it-out fest. Expect this to be a very low scoring game, with the Steelers making just enough plays on offense to advance to the divisonal round of the playoffs. Final score: Pittsburgh 16, Denver 10
Thursday, January 5, 2012
NFL Playoff Predictions
NFC
NFC Wild Card
New Orleans 38 Detroit 28
New York 24 Atlanta 21
NFC Divisional
New Orleans 28 San Francisco 13
Green Bay 31 New York Giants 27
NFC Championship
New Orleans 42 Green Bay 38
AFC
AFC Wild Card
Cincinnati 17 Houston 13
Pittsburgh 16 Denver 10
AFC Divisional
New England 31 Cincinnati 14
Baltimore 20 Pittsburgh 17
AFC Championship
Baltimore 24 New England 19
Super Bowl
New Orleans 34 New England 27
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