Friday, April 27, 2012

First Round Draft Analysis and Grades


1.      Indianapolis- Andrew Luck/ QB Stanford. The Colts finally made it official tonight and took the Stanford product with the first pick of the 2012 NFL draft. Peyton Manning picked the right year to have a season ending injury as the Colts became the front runners in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes when it was clear Manning wasn't returning. Luck will have a lot of pressure to take over from the greatest player in franchise history. However, Luck has all the qualities you look for in the quarterback - the arm, leadership, and athleticism. He is the best quarterback prospect to come out of the draft since Manning in 1998. And remember, Luck could easily had landed in Carolina last year had he decided to declare for the Draft after his sophomore season (he redshirted his freshman year). The Colts definitely had a little “Luck” going for them based on how this all shook out. Grade: A

2.       Washington-Robert Griffin III/ QB Baylor. The Redskins gave up three first round picks in order to acquire RGIII but when a team like the Redskins hasn't had a solid quarterback in the last few decades, it sometimes requires desperate measures. There was a lot of talk about RGIII possibly supplanting Luck as the number one overall pick, as he possesses speed that no one in the NFL will see from that position aside from maybe Michael Vick. However, RGIII has the accuracy that Vick has usually struggled with throughout his career. After three college football games last season, RGIII had as many incompletions as touchdown passes. Grade: A

3.       Cleveland- Trent Richardson/ RB Alabama. The Browns moved up one slot fearful that the Buccaneers would trade into the Vikings’ third slot and take the Doak Walker award winner. It proved to be the right choice, as Tampa Bay made it evident they were targeting a running back when they traded back into the first round to select Doug Martin. Richardson is the best running back prospect to come out since Adrian Peterson and will instantly improve a Browns rushing attack that hasn't been relevant in recent years aside from a fluke season out of Peyton Hillis. Grade: A

4.       Minnesota- Matt Kalil/ T USC. The Vikings made the right choice and selected the best tackle prospect since Jake Long went number one overall in 2008. Kalil will be a cornerstone on the Vikings offensive line for the next decade and will help protect the Vikings long-term investment in Christian Ponder. It just did not make sense for the Vikings to take a supreme man-to-man cover corner in Morris Claibourne when they run cover two base scheme. Grade: A

5.       Jacksonville- Justin Blackmon/ WR Oklahoma State. Blackmon is a big winner here as he will get the money slotted in the 5 spot rather than the 6. However, the Jags also should be feeling good about themselves as they now have their most explosive playmaker at wide receiver since the Jimmy Smith era. Blackmon completely dominated Big 12 competition the last two years and had a monster Fiesta Bowl against Stanford to prove his worth. The only question I have of him is his speed, but he still has the phyiscal size to out-man NFL cornerbacks.  Grade: A-

6.       Dallas- Morris Claiborne/ CB LSU. We expected there to be six premium prospects in this draft and they all went within the first six as expected, with Claiborne wrapping them up. However, of the six elite prospects, Claiborne might be the one that I like the least. He is outstanding in man to man coverage, but there were times last season where he did seem lost in zone. Thankfully for Dallas, their defense is a base man to man and Claiborne will be an instant impact player opposite of Mike Jenkins. Grade: A-

7.       Tampa Bay- Mark Barron/ S Alabama. Tampa Bay was severely lacking in the secondary and obviously needed a boost considering they have to face Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton each twice a year. Many thought the player they were targeting if they were unable to trade up and take Trent Richardson was Morris Claiborne. However, with Claiborne staring the Bucs in the face at number five, the Bucs opted to trade down and select the top safety in the draft in Barron. Barron is a supreme tackler who is not afraid to stick his face into contact. However, I believe it is a bit of a reach at seven. Barron isn’t the type of prospect that Eric Berry or Laron Landry (recent top ten picks) were. Grade: B-

8.       Miami- Ryan Tannehill/ QB Texas A&M. As I stated in my mock draft, I am not a big of Tannehill going this high. I wonder if Miami considered trading back a few slots and trying to get some extra picks out of this, because some of the teams below them are in no need of a quarterback. Tannehill didn’t really rise on to the scene until his Junior year at A&M and he struggled at times to make throws consistently. I like him more as a prospect than Blaine Gabbert who went tenth overall last year, but that isn’t saying much after Gabbert's dreadful rookie season. Miami showed they were desperate after whiffing on Matt Flynn in free agency, and made a slight reach here. Grade: C

9.       Carolina- Luke Kuechly/ LB Boston College. Excellent pick by the Panthers here. Kuechly is my number seven overall rated player behind the “Big 6” of this draft and is one of my favorite prospects in this class. He was one of those players where if you watched a Boston College game, he would stand out over anyone else, making plays all over the field. He is a ferocious tackler and will be a leader of the Panthers defense for years to come. Grade: A

10.   Buffalo- Stephon Gilmore/ CB South Carolina. I love Stephon Gilmore as a prospect almost more than Morris Claiborne. I believe he will be that good as he started 40 games in college going back to his freshman year. However, I did not believe his landing spot would be with the Bills. The Bills have had hit or misses in the top ten in the secondary the last few years hitting on Donte Whitner and missing on Leodis McKelvin. It wasn’t what I expected (was thinking Michael Floyd or Fletcher Cox), but the more I think about it, the more I like the pick. Grade: B+

11.   Kansas City- Dontari Poe/ DT Memphis. Scott Pioli is known for grabbing the players he loves, no matter if some may consider it a reach (see Tyson Jackson, Eric Berry). This year was no different as he nabbed the workout warrior Poe with the 11th pick overall. Kansas City was in desperate need of a 3-4 nose tackle and now believe they have their man with Poe. I like the thinking, but I don’t like the prospect. Poe had 44 reps on bench at the combine to go with sub-five 40, but his talent has not translated on the field (2nd team All-Conference USA). The Chiefs are going to need to find a way to light a fire under his belt, because Poe screams bust potential to me. Grade: C-

12.   Philadelphia- Fletcher Cox/ DT Mississippi State. Great move by Andy Reid to trade up and nab the top defensive tackle in the draft. It was obvious Cox was the target from the beginning and when Kansas City nabbed a fellow defensive tackle in Poe, it was important for the Eagles to get on the phone and move up three spots to get their man. Grade: B+

13.   Arizona- Michael Floyd- WR Notre Dame. The Cardinals wanted to take some of the pressure off their top playmaker Larry Fitzgerald and did that with the selection of Floyd. Floyd is a game-changer himself who simply out-mans opposing cornerbacks with his size and ball skills. The Cardinals saw what the Falcons did last year by pairing two physical wide receivers together with Julio Jones and Roddy White. However, this one-two version from Arizona may compete with them as the top wide receiving duo in the NFL in a few years. Life is definitely made easier on Kevin Kolb. Grade: B+

14.   St. Louis- Michael Brockers/ DT LSU. When Jacksonville leapfrogged the Rams and took Justin Blackmon one pick in front of them, St. Louis really had no other choice than to trade down. After just acquiring Courtland Finnegan in free agency, Morris Claiborne would have made little sense and no other team needs for the Rams was worth the sixth pick overall. I wonder if they tried trading down even further as the only upcoming team that really would have considered Brockers would have been Tennessee at 20. It might have been a little of a reach but with the short run on defensive tackles only a few picks earlier it may have been the right decision. Solid pick. Grade: B-

15.   Seattle- Bruce Irvin/ LB West Virginia. Let’s make that two years in a row now that Seattle has reached for a prospect that they could have most likely gotten on day 2. After selecting a borderline second rounder last year with James Carpenter, Seattle desperately reached again and took the raw 245 pounder Bruce Irvin. Irvin definitely has talent, but he even admitted after the selection that he didn’t think he’d be selected until around the 30’s. It will be up to Pete Carroll to groom Irvin and make him a dominant pass rusher, but it hard to look past the fact that the more polished Melvin Ingram was still on the board. Grade: F

16.   New York Jets- Quinton Coples/ DE North Carolina. I have a hard time comprehending this pick also. The Jets really needed a true 3-4 OLB as a pass rusher and Coples is the prototypical 4-3 defensive end. Melvin Ingram was still on the board and although he may not be the better talent, he fits the Jets system better and carries less baggage. I don’t really like Coples as a prospect as he did not wow me or look like he was really even trying whenever I saw North Carolina play last fall. This pick doesn’t do a lot for me. Grade: D+

17.   Cincinnati- Dre Kirkpatrick/ CB Alabama. This is a great pick for the Bengals as Kirkpatrick was one of the top remaining players on the board that filled a huge need for the Bengals. The Bengals have still not recovered since Jonathan Joseph departed in free agency last offseason, and Leon Hall is coming off a season ending injury from last season. Corner was the top need for the Bengals and they got their man. Grade: A

18.   San Diego- Melvin Ingram/DE South Carolina. This is another case where the best player available fills a position of need. The Chargers were either going to draft an offensive lineman or a 3-4 OLB. Larry English hasn’t really panned out, and the team desperately needed someone to rush opposite of Shaun Phillips. Ingram is arguably the top pass rusher in the draft so to get him at 18 is ridiculously good value for the Bolts. Grade: A

19.   Chicago- Shea McClellan/ LB Boise State. Ok, Packer fans. Enough with the conspiracy theories that the Bears just took McClellan so that the Packers couldn’t draft him. McClellan had been shooting up draft boards the last month and it was very unlikely he would even make his way to 28 in the first place. My question is where he fits in the Bears defense. He seemed like a prototypical 3-4 OLB, but now he may be forced to play with his hand down. Or will the Bears put him at linebacker and have Urlacher and Briggs teach him? I think McClellan will be a great football player, but I just don’t see the logic behind the pick. Grade: C

20.   Tennessee-Kendall Wright/ WR Baylor. The Titans needed a true complement to Kenny Britt to help stretch the field and Wright is the perfect player to do that. Kelly Washington isn't an ideal number two and remember Britt will also be coming off of ACL surgery. The Titans may have slightly reached, but that is my only qualm with this pick. Grade: B

21.   New England- Chandler Jones/ DE Syracuse. I was kind of surprised Jones lasted as long as he did, giving the recent surge in his stock the last few weeks. Jones is a superior athlete and may challenge Melvin Ingram as the best pass rusher in the draft from the 3-4 OLB position. This just screams a Belichek pick, and with Jones still one the board at 21, the Patriots couldn’t help but trade up and nab him. New England was likely going to use one of their picks on a 3-4 linebacker, so this should come as no surprise. Grade: B+

22.    Cleveland- Brandon Weeden/QB Oklahoma State. I mocked this one as my last change on the morning of the draft because it just made sense. We knew the Browns were interested in Weeden, and chances were they probably didn’t want to take the risk and hope he fell to them on day 2. However, I still have doubts about taking a guy who is older than Aaron Rodgers in the first round of the draft. Grade: C+

23.   Detroit-Riley Reiff/ T Iowa. Good scenario for the Lions as they obviously needed help on the offensive line with Jeff Backus nearing the end of the line. There always seems to be a tackle that falls about ten spots on draft day (Derrick Sherrod, Brian Bulaga) and become a good value pick towards the end of the first round. Reiff is not the same prospect that fellow Iowa first round tackle Brian Bulaga was two years ago. However, he will still be a solid pro player and makes a lot of sense for Detroit in this position. Grade: B

24.   Pittsburgh- David DeCastro/ G Stanford. This just screams like a Steeler pick. DeCastro is a nasty and gritty player who may be the most highly regarded guard to come out since Steve Hutchinson. DeCastro has drawn similar comparisons to former Steeler All-Pro Allen Faneca, and will have a good shot from starting from day one for the black and yellow. Just a little surprised they passed on Hightower, but still love the pick. Grade: A-   

25.   New England- Donta’a Hightower/ LB Alabama. Wow, instead of trading down, the Patriots actually traded up not once, but twice! The Patriots drafted a heck of a football player in Hightower who is very aggressive and will lay the wood. He will make a formidable middle of the 3-4 defense pairing with Jerod Mayo for years to come and will improve one of the worst defensive units in the league last year. Grade: A

26.   Houston- Whitney Mercilus/ DE Illinois. JJ Watt showed how great of a player he is going to be in that Wild Card game verses Cincinnati last season, but they are going to need someone opposite generating some fear in opponents too. With Mario Williams gone, Mercilus can fill in and join actually a deep group of 3-4 rushers that include Brooks Reid (second round pick from last year) and the emerging Connor Barwin. The question remains though if Mercilus is a one year wonder, as he has had no true production prior to last season. And is he a better player than the backers previously mentioned? Grade: B-

27.   Cincinnati- Kevin Zeitler/G Wisconsin. I heard the Bengals were really interested in Zeitler, which is why I mocked him there when the Bengals had the 21st pick. A great move by the Bengals to trade down and still get their man. The Bengals have a huge hole at guard and Zeitler could be a Pro Bowl player for years to come. He is one tough football player. Grade: B+

28.   Green Bay- Nick Perry/ OLB USC. The Packers struck gold taking USC outside linebacker Clay Matthews three years ago toward the back end of the first round. They are hoping to do the same with Nick Perry. Perry has long arms and is very athletic for a man his size. He is likely the third best pass rusher in this draft behind Ingram and Chandler Jones, and that is definitely an area that the Packers are lacking. Perry does have questions about work ethic and being soft, but there is a good chance that playing across from Matthews and being coached up by Kevin Greene will dispel that notion. Courtney Upshaw is more talented, but Perry is a better fit to the Packers system and is the superior pass rusher. Grade: B+

29.   Minnesota Vikings- Harrison Smith/ S Notre Dame. The Vikings opted to trade back into the first round after acquiring some additional picks from Cleveland prior to the draft starting. Smith is smart player who is the clear cut number two safety in the draft behind Mark Barron. He has good ball skills and will instantly upgrade a porous Vikings secondary that has to face three of the game’s best quarterbacks twice a year. Very solid pick. Grade: B

30.   San Francisco- AJ Jenkins/ WR Illinois. This pick doesn’t do a whole lot for me when there are better prospects such as Stephen Hill and Rueben Randle still on the board. Jenkins is a talent, don’t get me wrong, but is it really necessary to spend a first round pick on someone when he will likely start the season as the number five option in the offense? I know this team went 13-3 and didn't have many needs, but they already invested a top 10 pick a few years ago on Michael Crabtree. They also recently signed Randy Moss and Mario Manningham to stretch the field ,and Vernon Davis is still the primary option. A bit of a reach by San Francisco in my opinion. Grade: C-

31.   Tampa Bay- Doug Martin/ RB Boise State. One of my favorite picks in the first round because Martin is one of my favorite players in the draft. Martin has been compared by many scouts to Ray Rice for many reasons: his size, his pass catching ability, and his vision. New Bucs head coach Greg Schiano coached Rice at Rutgers, so he obviously must have also seen the same comparisons. Tampa Bay may have missed on Trent Richardson early in the draft, but this is the next best thing they could have done regarding the running back situation. LaGarrette Blount might not be happy, but the rest of Tampa nation should be. Grade: A

32.   New York Giants- David Wilson/ RB Virginia Tech. No one really knew what the Giants were going to do because they had such few needs. However, drafting Wilson makes sense because the team needs someone to complement Ahmad Bradshaw with the departure of Brandon Jacobs. Wilson obviously has no similarities to Jacobs, as he is a small and very fast back, but he should be able to come in and spell Bradshaw from time to time and help the Giants offense without missing a beat. Grade: B+

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