The two most storied franchises in the NFL meet in order to decide who goes to the Super Bowl. Does it get any better than that? Don't the chills travel down your spine when you read that statement? The Green Bay Packers vs. the Chicago Bears will meet at Soldier Field for the 182nd time and only the second time ever in the postseason.
Reasons why I am optimistic about this matchup:
1) Cutler usually plays horrible against the Packers defense. Cutler has touchdown pass, three interceptions, and has taken eight sacks this year when the Packers are in their nickel defense (3 corners out there). Cutler has never had a wow me game vs. the Packers and continually struggles, dating back to his first game as a Bear last season on Sunday Night Football where he threw for four inteceptions. He only had one interception in the first meeting this season on Monday Night Football, but he could have eailsy had three or four had it not been for Green Bay penalties. Cutler has tendencies to force the ball and throw off his back foot, which the Packers should take advantage of. Cutler also has not played well in the cold weather when it is under 40 degrees. Here are Cutler's numbers when the temperature is below 40 degrees this season: 60/114, 6.4 YPA, 6 TD, 6 INT, 68.2 rating. Most of the "good" part of those numbers came in the Bears best offensive showing of the season in their shootout with the New York Jets. The Packers have arguably the best secondary in the league and they should have some opportunities for interceptions. I just can't see Cutler carrying the Bears past this Packers defense. Thus, if the Packers can get up early, it will be tough for Cutler to lead the Bears back.
2) The Packers are the hottest team in the NFL. If Rodgers can play half the game that he played on Saturday night, I like the Packers chances. The Packers have had trouble scoring points against the Bears defense this season. They had no problem moving the ball in the first game in Chicago, but they only scored 17 points. In the second game, they could hardly move the ball, and only had a few big plays on their way to ten points. However, I believe if the Packers come out in their 4 wide receiver set and get the Bears four defensive backs on the field, the Packers will have the advantage. The Bears pass defense is one of the worst in the league, and it was obvious how the Packers can exploit teams with their four wide receiver sets after the Atlanta game. If the Packers can move the ball through the air again like last time in Soldier Field, and finish off their drives, the Bears will have no chance.
3) The field conditions. The Packers should benefit from the field conditions since the Bears biggest strength is their defensive line. The Bears will have trouble sustaining leverege and planting their feet in their rush to Aaron Rodgers. This should give Rodgers more time to survey the field and find an open receiver. Since the Packers are also a more aerial assaulting team than the Bears, it will be hard for the Bears defensive backs to maintain their footing and stay with the Packers receivers on cuts.
4) The emergence of James Starks. The Bears actually almost selected Starks in the 6th Round of the NFL Draft, but instead opted for Dan Lefevour. Now, Starks can show the Bears why they should have drafted him. The Bears have maybe the best run defense in the league and if Starks can average 4 yards a rush, like he did in the week 17 matchup, it will keep the Bears defense honest and it will not allow them play the pass on every down. Starks is the Packers workhorse back for the postseason and is going to have to put up some positive yards especially in the cold weather.
Reasons why I am worried about this matchup:
1) Devin Hester on special teams. Hester blew the game open the first time, which contributed to the Bears win in week 3 when he returned a punt for a touchdown. If the Packers can contain Hester on special teams, they will have a very good chance at winning. However, Hester's presence is solely enough to give the Bears great field position. The Packers actually won the special teams matchup in week 17, and showed how much the Bears offense struggles when they have rough field position. Kicking out of bounds may limit a Hester return, but it could still give the Bears great field position. It will be Masthay's job to pin the ball deep and accurately toward the sidelines, and not kick and line drivers, like he did on the week 3 return. The kickoff coverage must also not have any breakdowns in coverage, like they did in Atlanta last week. Danieal Manning is a great returner and more than likely the Bears will be starting near their 35 yard line every time no matter if the Packes squib it or not. However, hopefully Green Bay will be kicking off a lot.
2) Matt Forte could make or break this game. Martz has tendencies to go pass happy, but if this game is close throughout (which I expect it to be), Martz will probably pound the ball with Forte. Forte isn't flashy and likely won't break a long run, but he had a great game against the Packers in week 17, and was constantly picking up gains of 5 or 6 yards. The Packers are going to have to stop the run, much like I said they would have to with Atlanta and Michael Turner. If they are to do so or grab an early lead to make the Bears throw, they will be in control of this game. Forte may scare me more than Hester in this game, because he is also a big threat out of the backfield. I see Martz running many screens to counter against the the Packers blitzes that Capers will send, which could result in big gains.
3) The Bears Tampa 2 defense defitiely has given Rodgers problems. The corners play the flats like the normal cover 2, and the field is split in half by the safeties. However, Urlachers tends to drop back and take the gap in the middle of the field to take away any seem throws. Rodgers has tended to struggle against the Tampa 2 defense. Yet, the areas open in the defense tend to be the outside routes between the safety and corner. The Packers had a couple big plays in the week 17 meeting to Jennings on the outside before hte safety could get there in time and I look for the Packers to attack those areas again. The four wide receiver sets may also throw off the Bears and thoe short passing game to the slot receivers should be open against this defense.
Overall:
The Packers will win this game if they don't kick to Hester, limit Forte, and don't turn the ball over. Those are all big if's but the Packers are indeed capable of doing at least two of them. For the Bears to win this game, I believe they will need two of those three to happen and also for Cutler to make some plays. I am however, still very worried. I know the Packers have the better team, but the better team does not always win in these kind of games, especially with the game being at Soldier Field. I thought the Pack had a better team in 2007, yet mistakes doomed them in their game against the Giants. The Bears have had all of the breaks go their way this season. This game is going to be close throughout, I believe that the Bears will get another one of those breaks that may get them over the top and lead them to victory (just like a James Jones fumble that defied the laws of physics and refused to go out of bounds in week 3). It just seems like its that year for the Bears. I fear this may be talked about as one of those games where we look back ten years from now and say, "How did that happen?" kind of like the Owens catch, 4th and 26, and the 2007 NFC Championship Game. Hope I am wrong.
Bears 19, Packers 16
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