Eagles vs. Packers- 2010 NFL Wild Card Game

Yes, I am reviving my blog everyone. However, I am probably going to make this only a football blog from here on out. With my desire to work as a potential NFL Scout or as a sports economist, I thought writing about football would help as a beginning stepping stone. Anyway. it is one of my favorite times of the year: the NFL Playoffs. And my favorite team, the Green Bay Packers snuck in this week with a win against the Chicago Bears, 10-3. Anyway, I will give you my thoughts on the huge Packers-Eagles game this Sunday.

First, I will start out optimistically. This is why I love this matchup:

1. The Eagles have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Winston Justice should have a rough time blocking his former college teammate Clay Matthews, so I assume that Philly will give extra help to Justice on the right side with guard Max Jean-Gilles. Matthews will rush from the left side for the majority which will be Vick's blindside, much like he did in the first game of the regular season. With two guys mainly focusing on Matthews, I expect Capers to blitz Bishop or Hawk up the middle more times than we are used to. I am also expecting a lot of Charles Woodson bilitzes much like we saw last Sunday vs. Cutler and the Bears. The Vikings showed how Vick struggles against the corner blitz and I would take Charles Woodson (who I believe is the best blitzing corner in the league) over Antoine Winfield any day of the week. I am also intiruged that Capers now has a full week to prepare for Vick so it will be interesting what the rest of his gameplan will include and how he will contain Ron Mexico.

2. The Packers defensive backs match up very well with the Eagles speed receivers. As we have seen this year, Tramon Williams has locked down opposing number one wide receivers all year with the exception of Brandon Marshall earlier in the season. Thankfully, the Eagles don't have a huge physical receiver of Marshalls caliber. The Packers corners match up very well with speed receivers of the Eagles: Jeremy Maclin and Desean Jackson. I expect Sam Shields to be on Jackson for the most part much like the first game, where Shields held Jackson to only 4 catches for 30 yards. Shields showed in the first game he has the speed to stay with Jackson and I have much more confidence in Shields' coverage abilities since then. I expect Williams to be on Maclin who is the Eagles most complete receiver, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him matched up with Jason Avant on certain situations since he is the Eagles possession receiver and could cause the Packers some fits on 3rd down situations. However, Vick isn't really known for checking down too often so I expect Williams to be on Maclin for most of the game. That should leave Charles Woodson open to play close to the line of scrimmage and show plenty of blitzes which could fluster Vick.

3. The Packers offense matches up very well with the Eagles. It is simple: Do not throw the ball towards Asante Samuel. He is really the only true playmaker the Eagles have left on defense aside from defensive end Trent Cole. Many Eagles on defense that played the first game against Green Bay are on injured or on I.R., most notably LB Stewart Bradley, FS Nate Allen, CB Ellis Hobbs, and LB Brandon Graham. Dmitri Patterson the corner opposite of Samuel is very poor in coverage from what I have seen including letting Mario Manningham go off for 3 touchdowns only 3 weeks ago. Trevard Lindley, the Eagles nickleback is a pretty good tackler but he also has his deficiencies in pass coverage. This should mean a field day for Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack against a horrible pass defense.

4. The Packers are due. If you see my last point, the Packers are 0-6 playing at 3:15 on Sundays in the playoffs since 2000. Its amazing how the NFL keeps scheduling them for that time almost every year. Well, I think it is the Packers time to win one of these. Last year's game was a heartbreak ending and they also have to get revenge from the 4th and 26 debacle in the 2004 divisional round. Had the Packers won that game, they would have hosted the NFC Championship and perhaps gone to the Super Bowl. They finally have a chance to get their revenge on Philly and its been long overdue. The Packers have had many tough postseason losses since the Owens catch in 1998 and I think they are long overdue for a big victory finally.

Ok, so that is all fine and dandy but these are reasons why I hate this matchup:

1. Mike McCarthy. Ok, so I have been critical of McCarthy this season especially after the Detroit game , but I do have to give the guy credit with how this team finished the season They played very hard against the best team in football on the road on national teleivision with. a backup quarterback. Then with their backs against the wall and knowing they had to win their last two to get in against two playoff caliber opponents, the Packers were able to. Add that in with all of the team's injuries and you have to give the guy a pat on the back with what he has done with this team this year. I think McCarthy is good coach who gets his team up for games that really matter when all the fans are expecting something else. We all thought the Patriots would destroy us, but McCarthy probably coached his best game of the season minus the debacle in the final minute with Matt Flynn. The offense looked great with a backup quarterback and were moving up and down the field with time consuming drives and keeping the lethal Pats offense off the field. It was a superb gameplan but remember only one week earlier where we thought we were guaranteed to beat Detroits and we eneded up having our worst performance of the year. I think he has a terrific offensive mind and is a good motivator for the most part, but his teams have been really inconsistent since he has gotten here. The fact of the matter is that they have lost all 6 of their games by a combined 20 points! When is the last time the Packers have really not had a chance to win at the end? That answer is last year on November 1st in Favre's welcome back game at Lambeau Field with the Vikings. Face it, with McCarthy the Packers rarely get blown out which I credit him for. However, even though they are always close they never seem to be able to win this close games, which is my biggest complaint of McCarthy. As a huge fan, it is really heartbraking to lose so many close and not have just one or two go your way. McCarthy is 5-14 in games decided by 4 points or less and that needs to be fixed if they want to win in January. Whenever I am watching a Packers game, I always have a feeling in the back of my mind that if this game end up being close, we will lose. McCarthy usually has some bad clock management or will call a bonehead play that leaves me scratching my head in these close games. Just like on 4th and 2 and throwing a deep pass with Matt Flynn against the Lions to end the game. I like McCarthy but the guy has to prove to me that he can win close games. Again, if this game is close, I don't expect the Packers to win it because I can't even remember the last time the Packers won a game by less than 4 or in the final seconds. Some of that blame lies on Crosby and Aaron Rodgers but I also believe McCarthy really does panic in these situations. Let's hope I am wrong.

2. Playcalling. Ok, I'm getting on McCarthy again and usually I am fan of his playcalling. For example, the last three games have been great for playcalling, more notably the Giants and Patriots games. In those games we established a decent running game. It has been proven that we do not need a really good running game to win; we just need a respectable one to set up the play action and get away from 2nd and 3rd and longs. We kind of got away from the running game in the Bears game, but the Bears know us well and Harris and Idonije don't match up well with our small interior line. However, I am really sick of the dive play to John Kuhn. The worst sequence of playcalling for McCarthy these last three weeks was that 3 down set inside the 1. Look, we are not a good short yardage team because we have one of the smallest interior lines in the NFL. Wells and Colledge are very small for their respective positions and big defensive tackles get too much push on them (see: Suh in the Lions game). Yes, Kuhn is our best short yardage back but that play starts with the line and we continuously get no push in short yardage situations. I would be a fan of running it once and then throwing the play action in there to keep the defense honest but when we kept running it last Sunday I wasn't a happy camper. I am also worried that since our receivers have favorable matchups that we'll go back to old McCarthy where all our receiver seem to run vertical routes leaving Rodgers prone to hold on to the ball too long since no one is open. Yes, we all have seen that. I am very worried about how McCarthy will call this game and am hoping for a game like he called against the Giants: a solid run game to keep the defense honest, which should open up the passing game.

3. Bonehead Mistakes from the Receivers. We saw them on Sunday from the receivers: Key Drops. Driver's fumble also didn't help. Listen, we all know if Jennings catches that pass against the Lions instead of pretty much handing it to the Lions safety, we will probably win that game. Jennings and Jones had numerous drops that may have cost us points agains the Bears. Driver fumbled in Bears territory which also cost us. The previous week against New York, Nelson fumlbed at the ten in Giants territory and James Jones dropped a sure fire touchdown on a great throw by Rodgers which would have ended the game earlier. I am just sick of the receivers making stupid drops or fumbles. It cost us last year in Arizona in the Wild Card when Driver fumbled and we went down 14-0 in a hole early. Listen, our receivers are one of the most talented groups in the NFL, which makes it so frustrating why they always have these mental lapses at times. They can't make any key drops when its time for the playoffs because you will need as many points as you can get especially on the road.

4. Special Teams. I am still not over that Dan Connoly return and probably never will be. I hope Slocum still gets fired but I have to give him creidt for us outperforming the Bears special teams last week. However, the Eagles havea scary good special teams, especially with Maclin back there returning punts. As we saw from the Miracle in the Meadowlands, the Eagles could also put Jackson back there if they need a big play. The Packers kickoff team is also probably the worst in the NFL and they cannot allow any big plays after scoring points to switch the momentum back to the Eagles' side.

5 LeSean McCoy. McCoy played very well in the first meeting between these two teams. He only had 7 carries, but he also had 5 receptions. McCoy is the scariest player on the Eagles after Mike Vick in my opinion because the Packers have good personnel to shut down the receivers on the outside. However, we have figured out that the Packers run D is the most vulnerable part of their defense and if Reid gives the ball to McCoy many times, he could be in stoer for a huge game. However, Reid has McCarthy syndrome sometimes and also gets too pass happy which could benefit the Packers.

6. Michael Vick. Yeah, he really scares me with his scrambling ability and I still have nightmares on what he did to the Packers in the playoffs in 2002 with Atlanta. However, I also have trust in Capers and his gameplan and if we are able to limit Vick in any way and force a few turnovers, the Packes should have a good chance in this one. What scares me is Vick can always pull a great play with his arm or feet out of nowhere that is almost impossible for a single coach to contain. Vick seems to play big in big games and I am very worried about his scrambling ablility. If the blitz doesn't get there he could be in for some long gains, which was evident in the Miracle at Meadowlands comeback. We all know Vick is going to have some big plays; it is going to be up to the Packers to limit them however.

7. The Game Time. Yep, its a 3:15 on Sunday, the exact time I didn't want. It's the last game, the premier game everyone watches. The same time where we lost to Arizona last year. I really didn't want to be the last game because I can't remember the last time we won a playoff game Sunday afternoon. In fact, the Packers are 0-6 this decade in the 3:15 time slot in playoff games. the 4th and 26 debacle...yes, that was one of those 6 games. I just have bad memories and it would be an awful start to the week if the Packers lose.

Prediction:

All the signs point to the Packers winning this one which is what scares me. Everyone thought the Pack would win against Arizona last year because they matched up really well with them and we couldn't stop them. All the national pundits are jumping on the Pack bandwagon, calling them "the Most Dangerous Wild Card Team Ever." Well, it is time for the Packers to show everyone on the field. In recent years, they have not been able to do that. If this game is close, which I believe it will, I just can't see the Packers pulling it out based on recent history because I have not seen it. If the Packers get off to a fast start, the Eagles could fold and I could see the Packers winning by two touchdowns. However, if the game remain back and forth a close throughout (which I see happening since it is the playoffs), I see the Eagles pulling it out in the end by...you guessed it: 3 points.

Eagles 27, Packers 24 F

More to come later this week about my other wild card picks.