Falcons vs. Packers 2010 NFC Divisional Game

When you think about it, how big is this game on Saturday night for Green Bay Packers fans? FOX definitely thought it was a big game. Buck and Aikman who have always called the Sunday Divisional Game in the past, have been moved to Atlanta, while Albert, Moose, and Siragusa have been transported to Chicago. It will be the fourth straight game that the Packers will have with Buck and Aikman. Maybe that is a good sign for Packers fans since the Packers have won the last three straight that they have called.

As for the Packers, this is a game of revenge. Had the Packers won in week 12 on Thanksgiving Weekend in Atlanta, at the very least they would probably be playing in the Georgia Dome one round later. Green Bay would actually be hosting Seattle right now. There were many missed oppportunities in the game that we all know of: the missed challenge on Tony Gonzalez's first down catch, the fumble on the goalline by Rodgers, an the special teams mishap at the end of the game that gave Matty Ice only 20 yards in 45 seconds to set his team up for Matt Bryant's game winning field goal. The Packers played far from their best football that week and still had every opportunity in the world to win that game. It just speaks volumes of the job Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson have done with this team. Now, let me say this. Atlanta is probably the most beatable number one seed that I have seen in the postseason in recent memory. That does not mean that they are a bad team by any means. There is just no really dominating aspect to Atlanta's game. Teams know what is coming whether that is Michael Turner running in between the tackles, or Matt Ryan getting the ball to Roddy White and Gonzalez. Their defense is ranked near the top, but do they have any dynamic Pro Bowl players that are gamechangers like the Packers have in Woodson and Matthews? I don't believe so, unless you call Curtis Lofton or John Abraham one to an extent. I will make this clear: John Abraham does scare the hell out of me if he is going against a banged up Brian Bulaga. However, this Atlanta defense reminds me of the Green Bay one last year, where they had a very good statistical defense, but were prone to give up some plays. If the Packers do a few things in this game, they should be able to win this game. On paper I believe the Packers have the better team, but Atlanta still does have the edge playing in the Georgia Dome. Here are the keys for the Packers in this game:

1. Stop Michael Turner. First and foremost, Green Bay must stop Michael Turner if they want to be in this game. Capers must design a gameplan where the priority is for Green Bay to shut down the run early and make Matty Ice beat you with his arm. Turner had 23 rushes for 110 yards and a score and that was the Falcons biggest weapon in that game. The Falcons used the Dolphins gameplan against Green Bay and ran it down the Packers throats, getting 4 or 5 yards at a time to wear down the Green Bay 3-4 defense. The run defense has been the defense's weakest link this year and I expect Atlanta to go to it early and often. However, Turner does lead the NFL with 334 carries and has not looked as explolsive in recent weeks. He has not run over 50 yards in his last 3 games and did not have a game anywhere close to the one he performed against Green Bay since that game. Turner may be wearing down and it will be up to Green Bay to hit Turner in the hole often before he is able to get his strong lower body moving for extra yards.

2. Limit mistakes. Costly mistakes led to the first loss like I said, notably the Rodgers fumble and the special teams facemask penalty. In recent weeks, the Packers have had many drops and are going to have to limit those if they want to beat the Falcons. The Falcons are an offense that does not turn the ball over, and are a defense which forces a lot of turnovers, which has made them so succesful. If the Packers do not make and stupid mistakes, then I think they win this game. However, if they play like they did against the Eagles and make a mistake here and there (Underwood and Rodgers fumbles, Jones drop), the odds will definitely be against them to win considering Ryan doesn't throw many interception and Turner almost never fumbles.

3. Make Matt Ryan beat you. Yes, Matt Ryan is slightly overrated for what he does. I just think the ESPN pundits love saying the name Matty Ice and I am sick of it. But there still is no denying that he is a good quarterback. He has many 4th quarter comebacks, and the Packers experienced one in week 12 (even if Atlanta only had to go 20 yards). However, he has still only played in one playoff game in his life and he lost it. Before we label Matty Ice one of the elite, he will have to win a playoff game. Aaron Rodgers is now a permanent top 5 quarterback in the NFL with his numbers and a playoff win. I think Ryan is near the bottom of the top 10 but a playoff win could bring that ranking up. However, I still think he does not possess the same skill set as Rodgers or Rivers or Roethlisberger. What makes Ryan good is he is very smart and takes what the defense gives him. He only averages 6.4 yards a completion which ranked 29th among starting quarterbacks, which means he checks down the ball a lot. If the Packers can do point number one and stop Michael Turner, they have to try and let Matt Ryan beat them, which is exactly what the Saints did when they defeated the Falcons a few weeks ago on Monday Night Football. Ryan looked like an average quarterback at best that night and was only 15/29 with 148 yards and a touchdown. However, if the Packers can pressure Ryan, they can win this game. The Bucs put a lot of pressure on Ryan in week 13 and forced him to throw two inteceptions. If the Packers can put pressure on Ryan and make him make mistakes, I like the Packers chances.

4. Establish the running game. Yes, it was another one of those games where Aaron Rodgers was the Packers leading rusher. Brandon Jackson had 10 carries for a mere 26 yards, while Rodger ran for 51 yards. The Packers may have found something in James Starks last week, but he needs to prove that he can do it on a consistent basis. If the Packers can get a around 50-75 yards from Starks, that should be enough to keep the Falcons defense honest and give Rodgers some chances to throw the ball downfield. The Falcons are more prone to the deep ball than the Eagles, who were taking the deep ball away from Rodgers pretty much the whole game. With Starks now to pay attention to, the Packers should have some opportunities. If they can run the football or at least attempt to do it, that should open up the play action to Jennings down the field.

The Packers have a very good chance of winning this game, but they will have to play mistake free ball. They actually have not played that well the last two weeks and still were able to get past two very good teams. The closest game that they have played to perfection was that Giants game and there were still obvious mistakes in that game too. Packer fans are waiting for their team to still play their best game this season and Saturday night would be a good start. I just don't know if this Packers team has it in them to limit their mistakes. They usually make a couple every game that proves costly in the end. It is that reason why I think they lose to another Matt Bryany gamewinning field goal in the end.

Atlanta 24, Green Bay 21